AP reports that Dalai Lama has accepted the invitation to visit Taiwan (in Chinese here):
This certainly puts Ma regime in a very serious dilemma. I couldn't say it better than what's in the report (highlight mine):
It is understandable that Ma regime doesn't know how to respond:
There must be some torturing struggle in Ma Ying-jeou's mind now. He has flipped his tongue 180 degree before and after he took the office, from praising Dalai Lama to denouncing him in the fear of angering the communist China. Ma has expressed in many occasions that he considers Taiwan as an area of China. So Ma couldn't possibly approve Dalai Lama's visit without the approval of the central government in his mind - the communist China government that is.
Considering this: China has always portrayed Dalai Lama as a separatist. Whichever country approves for Dalai Lama's visit is heavily condemned by the Chinese government. Allowing Ma to welcome Dalai lama will jeopardize this non-negotiable stand. So it's almost impossible for China to approve this.
However, Ma's credit and approval rate in Taiwan are in their historical low. If Ma denies Dalai Lama's visit again (Ma denied his visit openly last November, even that Dalai Lama never expressed his intention of visiting), it will drag him much deeper into the abyss and make his recovery much more difficult. It might even push Ma to the point of no return when Ma is currently on the brim of losing his political grip. That will result in either Ma being replaced, or his policy of annexing Taiwan being seriously challenged by his colleague. Either way is certainly not in Ma's nor China's best interest.
So China will have to approve Dalai Lama's visit to Taiwan, if they still want to take advantage of what's left of Ma's value. But, such a serious violation of their firm stand against Dalai Lama will have to come with something in return - something very very big, in proportional to what China has to give.
What will Ma Ying-jeou surrender in return for China's cooperation to allow Dalai Lama's visit in order to to save both of them himself?
Will this surrendering indeed save them, or lower people's trust on Ma even more ?
One thing is almost certain: if that kind of deal is made, expect a consensus between them, that China will criticize Ma heavily in order to keep communist China's face. But, that will inevitably raise questions that the two sides across the strait are not that buddy-buddy after all.
No matter how they fare it, Ma and the communist China are in lose-lose situation in this case. Strategically speaking, the green camp fires a perfect shot.
In the mean time, some blue politicians got angered immediately, going so far as to label Dalai Lama a disaster (高市政府:達賴允諾來台安慰災民 藍委:嫌災難不多嗎?):
Well, it is indeed a disaster --- to Ma regime and his pro-China thugs. Whenever you see pro-blue politicians jump furiously like this, you know that a good move has been made.
Note:
Two Michaels just blogged about this:
Michael Turton: DPP invites Dalai Lama to visit disaster areas
J. Michael cole: Let’s bring things back to the center
A joint statement by leaders from seven municipalities recently hit by deadly Typhoon Morakot said the Tibetan spiritual leader planned to be in Taiwan from Aug. 31 to Sept. 4 and would visit storm victims.
This certainly puts Ma regime in a very serious dilemma. I couldn't say it better than what's in the report (highlight mine):
Political scientist George Tsai of Taipei's Chinese Culture University (台北中國文化大學政治學家蔡信安) said the Dalai Lama announcement has put Ma in a bind.
"If the central government allows Dalai Lama to visit, relations with China will be damaged, but if not, the public will think the central government lacks humanitarian concern (for victims)," Tsai said.
It is understandable that Ma regime doesn't know how to respond:
Ma spokesman Wang Yu-chi declined to say whether Taiwan would allow the Dalai Lama to visit. Analysts said such a politically sensitive visit was unlikely, though the Dalai Lama has made three visits to the island over the past 12 years.
There must be some torturing struggle in Ma Ying-jeou's mind now. He has flipped his tongue 180 degree before and after he took the office, from praising Dalai Lama to denouncing him in the fear of angering the communist China. Ma has expressed in many occasions that he considers Taiwan as an area of China. So Ma couldn't possibly approve Dalai Lama's visit without the approval of the central government in his mind - the communist China government that is.
Considering this: China has always portrayed Dalai Lama as a separatist. Whichever country approves for Dalai Lama's visit is heavily condemned by the Chinese government. Allowing Ma to welcome Dalai lama will jeopardize this non-negotiable stand. So it's almost impossible for China to approve this.
However, Ma's credit and approval rate in Taiwan are in their historical low. If Ma denies Dalai Lama's visit again (Ma denied his visit openly last November, even that Dalai Lama never expressed his intention of visiting), it will drag him much deeper into the abyss and make his recovery much more difficult. It might even push Ma to the point of no return when Ma is currently on the brim of losing his political grip. That will result in either Ma being replaced, or his policy of annexing Taiwan being seriously challenged by his colleague. Either way is certainly not in Ma's nor China's best interest.
So China will have to approve Dalai Lama's visit to Taiwan, if they still want to take advantage of what's left of Ma's value. But, such a serious violation of their firm stand against Dalai Lama will have to come with something in return - something very very big, in proportional to what China has to give.
What will Ma Ying-jeou surrender in return for China's cooperation to allow Dalai Lama's visit in order to to save both of them himself?
Will this surrendering indeed save them, or lower people's trust on Ma even more ?
One thing is almost certain: if that kind of deal is made, expect a consensus between them, that China will criticize Ma heavily in order to keep communist China's face. But, that will inevitably raise questions that the two sides across the strait are not that buddy-buddy after all.
No matter how they fare it, Ma and the communist China are in lose-lose situation in this case. Strategically speaking, the green camp fires a perfect shot.
In the mean time, some blue politicians got angered immediately, going so far as to label Dalai Lama a disaster (高市政府:達賴允諾來台安慰災民 藍委:嫌災難不多嗎?):
國民黨籍立委邱毅聞訊後痛批,邀請的人真沒有頭腦,達賴來台將嚴重影響兩岸關係,更會惹麻煩,「他們是嫌台灣的災難不夠多嗎?」
KMT legislator Chiu Yi fired a broadside at the news, saying that those invited Dalai Lama are brainless. He said that the visit will seriously damage the cross-strait relation and will cause troubles. "Do they think that Taiwan's disaster is not enough?"
Well, it is indeed a disaster --- to Ma regime and his pro-China thugs. Whenever you see pro-blue politicians jump furiously like this, you know that a good move has been made.
Note:
Two Michaels just blogged about this:
Michael Turton: DPP invites Dalai Lama to visit disaster areas
J. Michael cole: Let’s bring things back to the center