Showing posts with label DPP 2009 Nomination. Show all posts
Showing posts with label DPP 2009 Nomination. Show all posts

2009/06/30

政院通過台南縣市合併升格案


行政院通過了台南縣市合併升格的提案(補考通過 台南升格過關)。

有網友說,這化解了民進黨在台南的分裂危機。個人認為民進黨在台南的危機還沒有化解。只不過從一種危機轉化甚至延伸到另一種危機,甚至有可能更嚴重。

台南縣長提名人李俊毅大概自己知道拼不過陳唐山,因此早以「全力支持合併升格」為理由突然停止競選活動。如果升格沒有成功,原先與陳唐山硬拼的情況還在;如果升格成功,也許台南市的選民參進來,可以稀釋一些陳唐山在台南縣的支持度。再加上將選舉延後一年,拉長戰線讓他可以等等看是不是有機可乘。

但是民進黨台南市也有提名人,賴清德。就在上週,賴清德成立競選總部,而民進黨主席蔡英文還有出席。這似乎意味著:即使升格還沒有定案,民進黨在台南市的競選活動仍將進行,明顯與台南縣李俊毅「等升格而停止競選」的舉動不同調;而這個不同調的動作,暗示如果升格成功,民進黨必須在賴清德與李俊毅必須選一個時,賴清德出線的機率會比較大。

現在升格既然確定,民進黨必須傷兩個大腦筋:(1)賴清德與李俊毅必須選一個;(2)如果陳唐山要出來選「台南府市」市長,而且在「台南府市」的支持度仍高居不下,那民進黨二選一之後,還是必須面對陳唐山。也就是說,原來的危機不但沒有解決,反而在時間、空間上都延伸擴大。

從這個角度來看,民進黨在升格還沒有定案之前,就急著讓賴清德成立競選總部,似乎不是一步很好的棋。畢竟,事情發展已經顯示,民進黨三個月前,捨棄高民調的陳唐山而選擇李俊毅,是一步自殺性的舉動,現在等於是把「自殺力」從李俊毅身上延伸到賴清德身上,歹戲拖朋下去,失血恐怕會更嚴重。

另外,針對合併升格案的通過,陳唐山已經停止競選(針對行政院通過台南縣市合併案,陳唐山表示即日起他將停止競選籌備處所有選務工作)。其新聞稿中說:『他將投入更多心力關切阿扁的司法人權議題,他再次感謝這幾個月來鄉親的支持,他將綜合各方意見後再決定下一步怎麼走。』

更正:之前將民進黨台南市長候選人賴清德誤植為清德。

2009/04/23

台灣派的枷鎖:鞏固領導中心


昨天自由時報這篇『馬挾765萬票自我催眠』裡頭提到,一個政黨即使受到民意支持而取得權力,並不代表可以為所欲為,還是要經過民意不斷地監督。

這是我們用來堅持『ECFA必須人民同意』的理由。

最近針對民進黨的台南縣長提名事件,我看到許多台派知識份子提出「鞏固領導中心」的言論,要求台灣派既然當初支持蔡英文當黨主席,現在就應該支持她的決定,相信她能帶領台灣派走出困境,要不然當初何必找她當黨主席。

這樣的邏輯思考是權威統治時代的邏輯思考,跟我心中對民主政治的認知南轅北轍。如果這種邏輯合理,那等於說那些當初票投馬英九的 765 萬台灣人既然已經投了票就應該相信馬英九會帶領台灣走向榮景。我們再也沒有立場要求那些人站出來反對馬英九的親中政策。

我完全無法相信,這樣的觀念會廣為台派知識份子視為理所當然並欣然接受。當這樣的言論由台灣派的知識份子提出,而且變成台灣知識份子的主流時,我們已經在扮演「我們一直在批判的角色」而不自知。


同時讓我震驚的,是在這些所謂「顧大局」的勸言中,台南縣人的民意完全被忽略。

當我們堅持民主與自由做為台灣獨立的基本價值時,我們怎能完全漠視人民的需求?一個完全忽視人民需求的政治勢力,還能昧著良心「標榜民主」嗎?

以權威時代的心態與作法,不把人民的需求擺在第一,在民主投票的競賽過程中,結果終將是被人民拋棄。我們自己選擇了這個必敗的命運,然後再來抱怨 Taiwanese are stupid (台灣人是愚蠢的)?

到底是人民拋棄了我們,還是我們拋棄了人民?

這些震驚非同小可,讓我這個在台灣政治網路論壇上混了十年的老鳥突然驚覺:台灣要走到一個獨立自主的民主自由國家,遠比我之前想像的要艱難得多。

2009/04/15

Newslets(090414) - Corruption Survey, Indifferent soldiers, Jumbo Signboard


Just Tell Me If You Are Corrupt, Damn It! (09.04.13) - In response to Ma Ying-jeou's rage over the high rising corruptions under his less-than-a-year administration, the administration of corruption-tainted army (買官弊案 今移審板院), Ministry of National Defense (MND), establishes an anti-corruption taskforce MND Special Unit of Anti-corruption Reconstruction Movement (國防部廉政建設行動專案編組), convened by the Minister of National Defense Chen Chao-min (陳肇敏) himself.

To get a grip of how corrupt the army is, the Unit kick starts her investigation with a Survey of Self-Clearance Investigation (自清問卷調查) to ask military officers if they are corrupt. (馬總統重話要肅貪 陳肇敏親任國防部廉政行動召集人, 靠「問卷」查貪?李慶華:國防部玩假的!失敗就下台!)


Soldiers Watch On-going Robbery (09.04.14) - A robbery happened in a supermarket in Kinmen island. At least 5 soldiers stood inside the store watching without doing anything. One of them chased after the robber, but was called back by his colleagues. (金門超商遇劫 5軍人冷血旁觀)


Coordination by Jumbo Ads Signboard (09.04.15) - Last week the DPP completed a controversial nomination to pick Lee Chun-yee(李俊毅) for the 2009 Tainan County Magistrate election later this year. Lee's nomination rival, Mark Chen (陳唐山), who is much more favored by Tainan County residents, insists to answer to voters' call. In his two terms of service in that same position before, Chen enjoyed #1 approval rate every year for 8 straight years in surveys covering all magistrates and mayors in Taiwan. A recent public opinion poll against potential KMT nominee shows that he still enjoys 65% support, 19% larger than Lee's (陳唐山︰民調挺我).

After failing to persuade Chen to give up, Lee puts up 3 jumbo signboards along the highway which reads: "Old Magistrate, Please! Yield to New Generations" (請老縣長、牽成後輩). (李俊毅設T霸 望陳唐山牽成). The cost of each signboard is said to be $NT 200,000 (~ 6,500 US$).

2009/04/13

Flowcharting DPP's 2009 Nomination Measures

[ Note: The content of this post is similar to the previous
one written in Chinese, 圖解民進黨2009選舉提名辦法) ]

DPP's nomination of Lee Chun-yee (李俊毅), who received public support rate by nearly 20% less than another qualified candidate Mark Chen (陳唐山), for Tainan County municipal election later this year has triggered heated conflict between supporters of both sides.

Mark Chen and his supporters criticize that DPP has been hijacked by faction(s), that DPP neglects the opinion of Tainan residents, and that DPP violates the rules set by DPP herself.

Those who support the decision of DPP criticize that Chen violates the consensus agreed previously, that he is power-thirsty, that he fails to consider the greater good.

There are predictions that DPP might split apart due to this nomination, which shows how serious the problem is.

Because that both DPP headquarters and Mark Chen accuse each other of violating the pre-agreed competing rules, the details of DPP's nomination rules as well as how DPP executes it become the spot from where we can find how we got here.

I posted DPP's nomination rules Coordination Measures of Candidate Recruitment for the 2009 Municipal Elections and the Seventh Legislator By-Elections (represented by Measures in this post below).

This post presents the flowchart with some analysis.

Note that:

  • The numbers on both sides identify steps in corresponding to original articles. Article 3 is missing because it is not a procedure;

  • Each step is marked with (number);

  • Each decision branch is marked with [number];

  • There are 4 paths to reach a single nominee, marked with number in open circle;

  • You can click to see larger chart;

  • As usual, errors, if any, is on me.


DPP explained in several occasions that that their current nomination rule is not only a "recruitment" plan, but a "total recruitment" plan.

That means, no matter what factors are considered, the Campaign Strategy Unit (CSU, 選戰策略小組, the unit responsible for picking a nominee for each constituency) and the party President have the final authority to decide whom to be nominated.

That's how they justify the nomination of a less favored candidate.

Is this statement in line with their Measures?

Following the flowchart above, a nominee is to be selected through one of 4 paths.

Among them, the Path 1, 2, and 4 are decided solely by CSU, thus no problem with them.

But the Path 3 doesn't seem to be that way.

It happens in a condition that the CSU is unable to decide whom to pick from multiple qualified candidates (step (7)), followed by an unsuccessful coordination among those candidates (step (2.2)). It then comes to a situation regulated by Article 6.1:

『協調對象對解決競爭機制有共識,經選戰策略小組同意者,依其共識方式解決,產生人選。』
6.1 If all potential nominees reach a consensus on a competition rule, and the rule is approved by the CSU, the nominee will be decided by that rule;

It states clearly that the consensus (on how to pick) needs to be OKed by the CSU. Therefore, the existence of a consensus -- as what happened -- indicates that the CSU agrees to the selection rule(s) defined by the consensus, which could be anything but "recruitment."

Furthermore, the Measures doesn't grant the CSU any right to reject the nominee selected by that consensus.

That is, as long as a nominee is selected following the consensus (don't forget, it is pre-approved by the CSU), the only option the CSU has is to nominate that person.

It defines a transfer of the decision-making power from the CSU to "candidates plus CSU." The Measures doesn't transfer that power back to the CSU thereafter.

This is no longer a "recruitment" process.

Therefore, although the term "Recruitment" does show up in the title of Measures, the nature of recruitment exists only in Path 1,2 and 4. The nomination Path 3 is decided by a consensus reached by all candidates and CSU and has no recruitment nature.

Thus, unless DPP follows a under-the-table secret rule that is different from the Measures, it is obvious that the statement "total recruitment" doesn't fit in line with their own Measures.

It would probably be in DPP's own best interest to come up with better explanations to justify their nomination process.

Note that there's nowhere in the Measures says that the party president has the right to reject the nominee submitted by the CSU. Terms like "the president approves..." or "to the president for approval" doesn't exist.

That is, when a nominee is selected through one of the 4 paths, not only the only option of the CSU is to submit it to the president, but also the only option the president has is to submit it to the Central Executive Committee for approval.

Not only so. The president is not granted the right to 'pick from a list' either. The Measures says that either the CSU or "CSU+candidates" has the power of 'pick one from a list." Not the president.

The Measures in fact renders the president a rubber stamp such that if she/he wants to inject her/his own view into the nomination process, she/he can only do that before a single nominee is selected.

There's another big hole in the Measures - the step (2.1) on the top-right corner. If things develop to that situation, the Measures doesn't define what to do.

No idea if all those loopholes are due to carelessness. No matter what, it is how the Measures is written.

The current available information seems to show that, in the beginning, Mark Chen didn't have the intention to compaign at all. He was in fact "recruited" by Su Jia-chuan (蘇嘉全), the convener of CSU, into the selection process.

That is, Mark Chen had no intention to run but was recruited by DPP; he passed the CSU qualification evaluation, won over his opponent in the competition rules agreed upon by all candidates and the CSU (if that's what happened), and then ... sacked.

It is then followed by accusations from some of DPP's politicians and supporters that he is "power-thirsty" and "doesn't care for the greater good".

I wonder what I would do if I were put in that situation.

2009/04/12

圖解民進黨2009選舉提名辦法


[ Note: The content of this post is similar to a newer one written in English, Flowcharting DPP's 2009 Nomination Measures ]

民進黨上週針對今年底台南縣長提名人選,捨棄了民調較高的陳唐山而選擇了民調較低的現任立委李俊毅,在支持者之間引起了激烈的爭議。

陳唐山及其支持者批評民進黨被派系挾持、漠視台南縣民意、違反自己訂下的遊戲規則,而支持民進黨決議的一方則批評陳唐山違反提名辦法規定、權力薰心、不顧大局。

有人甚至警告可能導致支持者的分裂。可見這次提名引發的風暴非同小可。

由於民進黨中央與陳唐山互指對方違反事先所同意的遊戲規則,因此民進黨的徵召辦法到底如何規定、如何執行,成為這個爭議的重要根源之一。

我之前已經貼出辦法全文:『二○○九年縣市長選舉暨第七屆立法委員補選徵召候選人參選協調辦法』(底下以「該辦法」簡稱)。底下畫成流程圖 (點選可看大圖):


民進黨在辯護此次提名的正當性時,曾幾次公開強調,「該辦法」是「徵召制」,而且是「完全徵召制」,因此選戰策略小組與黨主席有權力全盤決定要「徵召誰」

這個說法是否正確呢?

依上圖,單一提名人選的產生可經由 4 個途徑 (由圓圈+1~4 號碼註明)。

其中第 1,2,4 途徑都是經過「選戰策略小組」產生單一人選,因此沒有問題。

但第 3 個途徑顯然不是如此。這個途徑是經過「選戰策略小組評估訪談報告無法決定單一人選」,而且「有協調需要但協調不成功」,而走到「第六條第一項」的:

『協調對象對解決競爭機制有共識,經選戰策略小組同意者,依其共識方式解決,產生人選。』

很清楚的,共識的成立必須經過選戰策略小組同意,因此有共識存在,表示選戰策略小組已經在「開始比賽」之前同意了「以達成的共識方式選出人選」。

而且,照該共識產生的人選,「該辦法」並沒有授權「選戰策略小組」否決該人選的權力。

亦即,一旦人選經過「共識方式」決定(不要忘了,這共識是事先經過選戰策略小組同意的),選戰策略小組唯一的選項,就是提名這個人。


這等於是把選戰策略小組的「有全盤決定權」的權力釋出,變成「參選人+選戰策略小組共同決定」。

這樣已經不再是「徵召」了。

因此,雖然該辦法「號稱」是徵召辦法,但實質上只有 第1,2,4個途徑是徵召,這第 3 個途徑則是靠「參選人+選戰策略小組」的共識決定。

因此,除非民進黨後來又有『沒有公佈且與該辦法不同』的秘密內規,否則民進黨當中央一再宣稱「提名辦法是完全徵召」,顯然與他們自己訂的「該辦法」不符。

那這個「共識」到底是什麼呢?現在雙方說法有衝突。

陳唐山與部分民進黨高層的認知裡,大家的共識是「誰民調超過第二名 9%以上就提名他」。因為他們認為民進黨在陳唐山因此共識出線後又反悔,因此導致陳唐山執意「按照共識」參選、葉國興退出選戰策略小組、以及14名中執委退出中執會。

而民進黨中央一再宣稱因為是「完全徵召制」,因此選戰策略小組有完全決定權。

但在此文證明,台南縣長提名屬於第三個途徑的情況,此時「該辦法」已無「完全徵召」之實。

因此民進黨如果要取信於支持者,恐怕必須拿出更好的說明。

補充:細看「該辦法」,並沒有「黨主席同意」的字眼。也就是說,「該辦法」並沒有授權給黨主席可以否定選戰策略小組所提交的提名人選。在經過第 1~4 個途徑產生了人選之後,選戰策略小組的唯一選項就是將其交給黨主席,而黨主席的唯一選項,就是「提交中執會」。

補充二:根據現有的資料,陳唐山原本無意參選,是民進黨在徵詢過程中,由選戰策略小組召集人蘇嘉全「徵召」他參選,陳唐山因此列入台南縣參選人之一,而得以與其他參選人達成「如何遴選提名者」的共識。