空泛不實的罷免案

馬英九的第二任期就要開始了。日前，民進黨跟台聯黨立院黨團趕著在馬英九的第一任期結束前，在立法院提出對馬英九第一任期的罷免案。

罷免這個法條的用意，是要通過民意，讓失職的民選政治人物不再能夠利用職權危害人民。所以『下台』應該是祭出罷免提案的目的。

但馬英九第一任期只剩下幾天，而且，若無國民黨立委的支援，即使完全整合所有在野黨實力也無法通過罷免案，因此要馬英九下台根本不可能。

那民台兩黨為什麼還要浪費社會資源提出這個根本達不到目的的法案？

根據民進黨立院黨團總召柯建銘的說法，是要『給馬英九一個警告』。他說：

在此要警告馬英九，第一任總統是以罷免案結束，不希望第二任總統是以罷免案開始，相信這個罷免案的提出是一個國會的紀錄，是一個歷史的印證，希望給馬英九當頭­喝棒，也讓後人知道這是此時人民共同心聲。【1】

問題是，『在國會提出罷免案』有任何實質意義而可以『作為歷史印證』嗎？

我們知道：任何立法委員都可以在國會提出任何案子。即使一個案子在立法院裡面完全沒有任何其他支持者，你還是可以提出該案。以罷免總統來說，即使一個總統在立法院享有絕對多數立委的支持，剩下的少數立委也可以『提出』罷免案。

因此『有人提案』本身是不具任何代表性意義的。若要作為歷史見證，一個罷免案必須經過法定程序成案，代表真的是有多數立法委員敢站出來罷免馬英九，那才具歷史意義。這種行動唯有在事先與部分國民黨立委取得共識的先決條件下才有可能進行。而綠營這次提出的罷免案卻連個邊都沾不到。

也因為不可能成案，因此所謂的『第一任總統是以罷免案結束』的說法只是用來讓自己感覺良好的扭曲詮釋。所謂的『不希望第二任總統是以罷免案開始』就更加空泛了。

由於提出了根本不可能達到任何實質目的的罷免案，而提出的說辭卻又是非常空泛，綠營這次的罷免案，本質上只是一場純粹要讓馬英九難看的政治秀罷了。

然而這場政治秀卻凸顯出綠營政黨非常嚴重的兩個根本性問題。

一. 不知政黨角色定位在哪裡

政黨存在的意義是什麼？綠營兩黨爭取了增加在國會中的立委席次，這些立委的目的到底在哪裡？是為了要讓敵對政黨難看嗎？

不是的。政黨存在是為了人民，而立法委員的存在是為了要替社會提供更完善的法律，讓整個國家更進步。

Michael Turton 在近日的一篇文章【2】講到國民黨現在正打算利用出賣國土與政府資產給財團的方式來降低赤字。這是在把台灣全民所有的硬體賣給私人來補償因為政府腐敗無能而產生的經濟困境 -- 政黨貪腐無能導致人民損失，然後再拿屬於人民的硬體來補人民的損失。而我們都知道，在馬英九全力引進中國勢力的情況下，這些屬於全民的台灣資產最後會落到誰的手裡。任何人都可以想像這後果會有多嚴重。

這只是台灣目前急需面對的千千萬萬個難題之一。類似像這樣對全民資產的鯨吞蠶食現在正不斷發生。在執政黨立委無恥地替搜刮人民權益的政策護航的情況下，人民唯一能夠仰賴的只有在野黨。

但在野黨在忙什麼呢？進行政治角力讓馬英九難看？這是選民托負的責任嗎？這是千頭萬緒必須處理的問題中的重要事項嗎？這種毫無實質意義的罷免提案，能夠解決任何人民的困境或幫助這個社會往前走一點點嗎？

從這裡可以看出，綠營兩黨似乎對於自己角色定位的認知相當混亂，因而無法在『政治鬥爭』與『為民服務』兩者之間分辨出哪一個才是政黨的本份，因此才會有目前這種把立法委員當做政治鬥爭工具的鬧劇出來【3】。

如果一個政黨忘了自己存在主要功能是為人民解決問題，而把有限的資源用在讓政敵難看上頭，那人民對這種政黨還能有什麼期待呢？

二. 缺乏深謀遠慮的眼光

以長遠的綠營與藍營對抗的策略運用來看，綠營兩黨這次的政治操作恐怕受傷最重的還是自己。讓我大略翻譯英文台北時報前幾天的社論的一部分【4】 來陳述這個觀點(該文作者部落格在【5】)：

民進黨在蔡英文過去四年帶領下所達到的成就已經因為黨內領導階層的傾軋而飽受威脅。看來他們似乎完全喪失目的與方向感。自從蔡英文離開黨主席職位後，民進黨已經陷入一場混亂，自己無法提出明確的政策，只會不斷地針對馬英九與他的政策進行全面的攻擊。

這種反射動作似的攻擊在最近走向極端：民進黨立法委員宣稱他們要在馬英九第一任期還剩下一個多禮拜時對他提出罷免案。

雖然馬英九因為一連串的失策，而使其受歡迎的程度在最近跌落到有史以來最低的水準，但綠營這個罷免案能夠造成的唯一後果就是促使國民黨團結起來。而這個團結國民黨的行動，是在國民黨本身已經開始在根本上呈現裂痕的時候。這點可以從國民黨立法委員在立法院的重要議題上脫離國民黨的黨意而表現自主投票的行為上看得出來。

如果民進黨在事務的處理上謹慎一些，成熟一些，在行動上僅止於參與抗議，那國民黨本身的裂解將會自己加深，這將給綠營難得的機會向某些藍營的勢力招兵買馬尋求合作的機會。

但現在這個機會已經流失。藍營看到他們的領導者被圍攻，他們已經開始團結起來，積極化解各派系對馬英九與他的行政單位的攻擊。

更有甚者，民進黨這種表現，讓民進黨自己看起來像個輸不起的一方，好像在告訴人民：即使民進黨在過去四年已經歷經了相當程度的改革，但在輸掉這次總統大選之後，他們決定走回以前那種飢不擇食的老路 - 譬如說，像這次提出的這個罷免案。

也就是說，透過這個罷免案，綠營不但告訴人民：政治纏鬥比人民生計還重要，而且對於馬英九的腐敗無能所製造出來的國民黨裂痕（這是從天上掉下來的禮物！），沒有加以善用，反而在這個節骨眼上攻擊對方的指揮中心，因而平白幫國民黨製造了彌補裂痕、進行團結的契機。

這種賠了夫人又折兵的自殺性舉動，無疑顯示綠營的領導階層在長遠的謀略上嚴重缺乏具有視野的人才。

民進黨、台聯黨立院黨團於（2012年）5月14日聯合召開記者會，對馬英九只剩下不到一個禮拜的第一任期提出罷免案。由於毫無成功機會，此罷免案形同對人民賦予立法委員職責的浪費，同時白白送給已經分崩離析的國民黨彌補內部裂痕加速團結的理由。（照片翻拍自獨立媒體現場錄影  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zRy-JE-n2oY ）

綠營需要從根部進行改革

綠營已經跟國民黨有幾十年的對抗經驗，到底什麼地方出了問題，為什麼到現在還弄不清楚，真正需要的是對人民實質有益的事，而不是表面上的政治花招？為什麼這麼多年了，還會使用這種招數幫助國民黨團結，同時把自己推向絕境？這是綠營必須嚴肅面對並深入檢討的問題。

看來，綠營政黨不只需要改革，而且還必須從政黨高層的心態上做徹底的革命，才能有承擔人民託付的重任的可能性。

【1】在野黨聯合提案罷免馬英九 國會記錄、歷史印證
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zRy-JE-n2oY
【2】Shock Doctrine: Zounds!! OMG debt SELL THE LAND NOW
http://michaelturton.blogspot.com/2012/05/shock-doctrine-zounds-omg-debt-sell.html
【3】台灣綠營提罷免馬英九 藍批：政治鬧劇
http://www.epochtimes.com/b5/12/5/15/n3588875.htm%E5%8F%B0%E7%81%A3%E7%B6%A0%E7%87%9F%E6%8F%90%E7%BD%B7%E5%85%8D%E9%A6%AC%E8%8B%B1%E4%B9%9D-%E8%97%8D%E6%89%B9-%E6%94%BF%E6%B2%BB%E9%AC%A7%E5%8A%87
【4】EDITORIAL: The DPP’s self-defeating shenanigans（民進黨自我毀滅的鬧劇）
http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/editorials/archives/2012/05/18/2003533086
【5】The DPP’s self-defeating shenanigans / J. Michael Cole 寇謐將
http://fareasternpotato.blogspot.com/2012/05/dpps-self-defeating-shenanigans.html

2012 Election Controversy: Official Vote Rigging?

The 2012 election is over. The incumbent Ma Ying-jeou of KMT party, after a hard fight, won with a comfortable margin of 6% (see the table in the end of this article) over the challenging candidate, Chairperson of the DPP, Dr. Tsai Ing-wen.

To many of Tsai's supporters, however, the election outcome is questionable. That mind set mainly (my observation) comes from two factors: First, the popularity of Tsai prior to the election was so high, making people feel that there's no way Tsai could have lost, let alone lost with such a margin. Secondly, the vote counting process is way too problematic, when comparing to what people experienced in the past elections. People reported all sort of different abnormalities and law violations of the vote counting behaviors in many counting stations all around the country. Just a couple of examples to let readers understand why voters doubt the result,

* When counting Tsai's votes, two tickets were read once, but when counting Ma's, one ticket was read twice;

*  Tsai's ballot was read correctly, but was recorded as Ma's when entered into the record;

* At the time of counting process started, people were blocked by the police for 10 to 15 minutes before they were allowed to enter the counting room. When they did enter, the ballot box already opened (this is against the law) and counting already started;

* More common complaints: many stations rushed the counting in a super speedy way such that people who watched were not able to tell if the counting was correct. For example, one station with 700 voters finished the counting of all ~2100 ballots ( each voter has 3 ballots: president, legislator, party)  in less than 20 minutes, averaging more than ~105 ballots/minute. If the counting proceeds as required by the law, one ballot would have taken at least 3 seconds. In one minute, you can only count ~20 ballots at most.

These are just the tip of iceberg among overwhelming complaints that I heard.

Because that voters are not allowed to carry any electronic device into the voting room (well, in the location I went to, this rule was violated, too -- people were only asked to turn off the cell phone. Not only was cell phones were allowed, but also there was no check on any other devices), any voting violation can't be caught on camera. And because the vote counting started right after the voting was done at 4 pm sharp, many people who voted and waited to watch the counting didn't have a camera with them. So most of the counting violations reported so far didn't come with evidence. This is a hard lesson to learn for democracy.

However, that doesn't mean the vote counting is completely safe from scrutiny. At the time of counting, the counting progress was recorded and published live online on the official website by the Central Election Commission (CEC),  the official unit in charge of all things related to elections. One guy took screen shots, roughly one in every 3 minutes, and made a slideshow out of them. There were total of 68 slides starting from 17:48 (note: the counting started at 16:00) to 21:59 (when all the counting was completed) on Jan 14th.

Since I am usually obsessed with any data of time series nature, I tried to write down the votes on each slide along with its time and total counted stations,  to see how the counting proceeded. Much to my surprise, there is one abnormality that puts me in disbelief : on slides from 21:00 to 21:06, when the total counted stations remains unchanged for 6 minutes -- which means that the vote count should have been unchanged -- Tsai's votes mysteriously dropped, and Ma's increased. See the screenshots below.

The screenshots, summarized in the following table,  indicate that in the official ballot counting, Tsai's votes dropped and Ma's increased when there's no new counting stations added.

Time	Tsai	Ma	Soong	Diff
21:00	6088958	6881307	369012
21:03	6088958	6881307	369012	0
21:06	6088278	6882220	369024	Tsai -680 Ma +913

It seems that the official election commission is automatically adjusting the vote counts in favor of Ma Ying-jeou in the middle of counting. The adjustment we are able to see is not large: Tsai down by 680 and Ma up by 913. But that might be an indication of something much more serious in the official counting which could have been carried through the entire course of counting. We don't know if the final result given to us is the true count or the count after such a possible systematic adjustment.  

The numerous counting violations in local stations in favor of Ma as seen by many voters might not account for the winning edge of Ma's (~ 800,000 votes). However, if such an auto ballot adjustment does exist right inside the CEC, it could have more damaging effect. Comparing to potential ballot rigging on local counting stations, in which the outcome is unpredictable, a direct adjustment on the numbers in the official final steps ensures Ma's win with a predefined ratio -- a ratio large enough to exceed the maximal vote difference required by law for a recount.

Interestingly, the doubt on Ma's winning based on a predefined ratio does circulate based on different channel of info. Recall that Ma got total of 6,891,139 votes. In Taiwan, large numbers are described in shorter form on  base of 10,000 (called 萬). For example, Ma's votes would be called >6 million in English, but "689 萬" in Taiwan's language. So the number "689" is meaningful.

Two days before the voting, a netter named v99999 posted on the forum of xFuture website with a definite tone of prediction of the election outcome with the number 689. I translated the content, with most of original format below:

~Please remember~689~Don't be shocked Posted by v99999 at 2012-01-12 17:54 #

評價： 39

~Please remember ~689~ Don't be shocked ~Please remember ~689~ Don't be shocked What does it represent ?? You will know it the day after tomorrow,,,There are many things that can't be learned by deduction and statistics.,,,Is it something not yet occurred? In fact, it already occurred,,,Many people always wait till the time of seeing it to ask why. In fact there's no "why" to it,,,It is just the way it is,,, 689

In fact, some reported that the same netter already predicted the number 689 on Jan,7th, one week before the voting. 

Is it a coincident ? A prediction of powerful fortune teller ? Or, a leak from someone who knew something behind the scene ? In a followup post to the above one, v99999 claimed that he/she actually saw the number before the election. The tone in the post makes people wonder  if the election outcome was already defined before the voting. 

There are many other reports of potential ballot rigging. The more you heard, the more you start to doubt if the election is indeed rigged. Many people against this ballot rigging theory claim that it's impossible to rig, 'cos every party would send people to each single counting station to monitor the votes and do the vote count themselves to ensure the counting is correct.

But here is where it gets even more bizarre -- the DPP didn't send people to watch a large number of counting stations !! Many voters reported that when they went to watch the counting voluntarily, they didn't see anyone from the DPP.  In as many as 1600, 2000 or even 5000 stations, according to different sources, out of the total of 14806 counting stations, the DPP didn't assign anyone to monitor and collect the vote counts. 

How on earth could this have happened? The DPP has a long history of experience fighting against the KMT, a party that has long been recognized by people with vote rigging. Fighting against such a rigging-prone party, you would imagine the DPP will definitely monitor the counting closely. In fact, in the past elections, especially ones as critical as the president election, the campaign team of DPP always mobilized and trained people to watch the counting very closely to prevent the vote rigging. Why did they skip it and just let the KMT did whatever they wanted to do this time?

If there indeed was ballot rigging by Ma Ying-jeou's government and the KMT, the DPP campaign team must be seen as partly responsible, at least on the basis of negligence. There might be something more to it. My instinct tells me that someone inside the DPP didn't want to see Tsai elected. I can go on for several articles on this but we will stop here.To people interested in the DPP politics, especially how Tsai Ing-wen struggled to guide the DPP through trouble waters within different fighting forces inside the DPP, this is a topic worth of study.

Anyhow, this article is about the vote rigging of this election. Some more studies on the vote counting might reveal more of the details. Or maybe sometime in the future, some might come out with more evidence. No matter what, this election must be recorded in the history book with not just the result but all the vote counting of law violating nature.


Update: 


1/31/12: See more counting violations compiled by Claudia.
1/31/12: The DPP releases a statement saying that they had nearly the same amount of vote-count monitors as the number of counting stations. 
2/1/12: The CEC releases a statement saying that it's an input error. 

Reference:
Summary of the 14 January 2012 Republic of China presidential election results from wiki

Party		Candidate		Votes	%
		Pres	V. pres
	KMT	Ma  Ying-jeou (incumbent)	Wu  Den- yih	6,891,139	51.60%
	DPP	Tsai  Ing-wen	Su  Jia-chyuan	6,093,578	45.63%
	PFP	James  Soong Chu-yu	Lin  Ruey-shiung	369,588	2.77%
Total				13,354,305	100%

Future Market predicts: Ma falls behind by 8% and keeps falling fast

Xfuture, the future market website, claimed to be more accurate than most opinion surveys conducted by media in Taiwan, is conducting surveys in the form of stock exchanges for the upcoming legislative and presidential elections. There are 3 contract groups for the president election. I am sharing the timeline of one of them, The Estimate of Vote Percentage (2012總統選舉投票率預測), for all three candidates: Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文, DPP), Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九, KMT) and James Soong (宋楚瑜, PFP). The data covers the period from 9/1/2011 to 12/2/2011 for both Tsai and Ma. Soong was not included into this contract group until 11/4/11. At the time of preparing this post (12/2), the data show a profile of Tsai : Ma : Soong = 51.0% : 37.1% : 12.5%.

The data is presented in two graphs: first the data only, allowing readers to observe the trends without the interference from my interpretation. The second one includes (1) events that might have marked the major critical changes of winning trend at specific times; (2) a projection of the trend to the election date (1/14/2012), by extrapolating the data of the last 10 days or so, to show the possible outcome if it keeps going with the current trend.

Fig.1. The estimate of vote percentage for the 2012 presidential election. Blue: Tsai Ing-wen (DPP); Red: Ma Ying-jeou (KMT); Brown: James Soong (PFP). Source: Xfuture

Fig.2. Critical Events and Projection. A. around 5% of Ma's supporters changed to Tsai in October, followed by a seemingly non-stop fall on Ma's side. B. Soong was introduced into the competition, which comes with a second wave of Ma's rapid fall; C. The war of persimmons, doubling up the speed of Ma's fall. See details in text. Also, the data in Fig.1. is extrapolated to the election date (1/14/2012) based on the current trend.It shows that Ma could fall behind Soong 10 days before the election, reaching a final percentage profile of Tsai:Soong:Ma = 50%:30%:20% --- if the current trend remains unchanged. Note: right after point C, there's a deep fall of Ma's rate. It was categorized by the Xfuture as intentional manipulation and was corrected back to the normal trend.

The data in this contract group shows that, before October, Tsai and Ma both gained ground with small but steady pace, with Ma leading by about ~10%.

In the mid to end of October, however, significant amount, about 5%, of Ma's supporters switched to Tsai in a very short time (Point A in Fig.2).

What happened in October that might have contributed to this swift change ?

On Tsai's side, she finished campaign tours all over Taiwan with overwhelming support, then heated up the campaign with the Piggie Bank Trio movement, signifying a common people's war against the KMT authority. Both could be seen as an effective way to consolidate green base and potentially brings a positive face to the election.

On Ma's side, he failed to respond to farmers' wish for the Old Farmer Subsidy (OFS). It is a tradition in Taiwan to raise the monthly OFS by NT$ 1,000 in presidential election, a tradition the DPP follows. But, Ma insists that farmers deserve only 316 dollars/month of increase this time.

It went wrong seriously in the beginning. In one of stories reported by a KMT local legislative candidate (note that the legislators will be voted on the same date as the president), when they went to the home of a long-time pro-KMT farmer to deliver the 316.00, the farmer just threw it back at them. Many others told them not to come at all.

Urgent calls like this from local KMT campaign workers were rushed to the headquarter in Taipei, repeatedly, only to meet repeating announcements from Ma's totally-out-of-touch campaign team that 316 is fair and square. It won't help at all when news about Ma's gov spent huge money in unrestrained way in other directions (see below), and raise subsidy to other groups of people who already enjoy much more monetary benefit than farmers did (see here, here and here).

Based on several sources from the KMT side, this arrogant blunder costs Ma somewhere around 3~10% votes. With each 1% equates to about 150,000 votes, Ma lost 450k ~ 1500k votes with this single blunder alone.

But Ma didn't stop there. In the press conference when he formally announced his "Golden 10 year" plan (黃金十年), supposedly to be a campaign-boosting ingredient, he rushed to include his plan of a peace agreement with the the communist China (see Frozen Garlic's comment for why Ma shouldn't have done so). It was a plan that he furiously denied 2 months ago when his campaign manager King Pu-tsung (金溥聰) -- allegedly the real powerful man-behind-the-scene who makes decisions for Ma to follow -- announced the peace talk in a trip to the USA. Besides, it was originally not in Ma's golden 10 years plan -- at least not to anybody's knowledge. Nobody in the entire Blue camp seemed to have any prior knowledge of it -- the KMT heavy heads, the KMT campaigners, the KMT legislators ... until Ma suddenly announced it in that press conference.

Stunned in an unimaginable manner, people from all camps threw in heavy criticism. In response, Ma's office delivered another rushed announcement in the midnight the same day --- that the peace agreement WILL be pre-approved by a referendum. But, in less than 12 hours, Ma followed it with another rushed flip-flop by saying that the referendum is just one of the means to get public opinions on the peace agreement.

Tsai responded with an approach like, "fine, lets get on with the referendum law, then."(my wording) The next Monday, the DPP law makers sent in the proposal to the Legislative Yuan. The KMT rejected it.

Ma's plan of peace agreement was thus finished and moved to the trash in less than 10 days -- along with his supposedly boosting Golden 10 Years Plan. What is left is the deep scars on Ma's image.

All the above events exploded in October, corresponding to the onset of rapid falling seen in the graph presented here. Note that the trend of falling continued, albeit in a slower rate, even before Soong was included in the contract (Point B), which sped up the gap increase between Tsai and Ma.

It was followed by even more catastrophic events (not marked on the graph) on Ma's side along the track, including the humongous spending on a musical "Dreamers" (夢想家) that was staged only twice. The contract was given to a small group of artists who are allegedly close to Ma's wife, and is the same group of people who also took several multi-million art contracts from the government after Ma took power. A large portion of government's budget for artists flow into the hands of the same group of people like fountain water. The money given to Dreamers alone equates to 50% of the yearly funding for artists.

Ma said he ""felt sorry" for how the gov money was spent. Ma's campaign companion, Wu Den-yih (吳敦義), said that he did not know the show had such a high budget and that he regretted the money was spent in that way. However, a pro-KMT commentator revealed that Ma and Wu were actually who approved the spending in a meeting. The guy who "resigned to stop the bleeding", Council for Cultural Affairs Minister Emile Sheng (盛治仁), is but a scapegoat.

With other bad (or good) news like the revelation of Ma's link to a bookie in suspicion of manipulating the election outcome, we went on to the "War of Persimmons" , by which Pro-KMT polls all said that Ma regained the lead after this by as much as 8~10%. But the data shown here (point C) indicated that Ma actually suffered even more.

In review, Ma's fall could be roughly dissected into 3 stages:

1. In October, Tsai gained ground with campaign tours, Piggie Bank Trio, etc, and Ma lost ground with OFS, the peace talk, etc --- contributed by: Tsai, Ma

2. In mid Nov, Ma went down with Soong's entry as well as Ma's Dreamers Musical and his links to bookie --- contributed by: Soong, Ma

3. In end of Nov, Ma went further down after the persimmon price debate --- contributed by: Ma

In summary, the falling of Ma is due to 3 factors: Tsai, Soong, and Ma. Among them, Ma contributed to his own fall in much larger magnitude. That is, Ma is the one who puts his own re-election in jeopardy.

This is something we have to bear in mind, 'cos, if Ma loses, many pro-KMT media, as well as many foreign media that is really foreign, are going to blame Soong for Ma's loss, while in fact Ma's his own worst nightmare.

The extrapolation of the trend presents a possible scenario that Ma's rating could fall behind Soong's in around 10 days before the election, reaching a final result of Tsai:Ma:Soong = 50%:20%:30%. Certainly, if only the trend is kept, which may not be likely.

No matter what, 40 days before the election, there's just no sign that Ma could ever recover from his downfall trend. Seeing how many screwup moves contributed by Ma and his people, Ma might be better off not campaigning at all.


More ref:

See XFuture's own report on the same data set:
未來事件交易所目前對2012年總統選舉預測-蔡英文擴大領先馬英九8%、宋楚瑜上升到12%_20111202 http://nccupm.wordpress.com/2011/12/02/1429/

KMT's 5-City Campaign Strategy: Admit Incompetence on All Fronts

In the year-end election of Five Cities (五都選舉), the common perception was that the KMT will take the 3 on the north (Taipei, New Taipei City, and Taichung), and DPP will secure the 2 to the south (Tainan and Kaohsiung). KMT's original estimation was 3 easy victories, with the possibility of winning 4 or even 5.

The recent development, however, displays a dramatic twist of trend, indicating that the possibility of "KMT losing all 5" might not be too far fetched.

The signs are showing up on a daily or even hourly basis (see how exciting Taiwan's politics is). Public opinion polls from various sources -- including those from KMT's own, and that from blue media -- say DPP reaches a tie or even winning significantly in New Taipei City and Taipei, and is catching up quickly in Taichung. In Taiwan's politics, a tie in polls so early would mean that KMT will lose by ~20% in the real elections.

The alarming sign forced KMT to call for an emergency meeting on June, 19 (北北都選情拉警報 馬今密商).

At the mean time, KMT Secretary-General King Pu-tsung (金溥聰), who was considered Ma Ying-jiou's last life-saving card and was hired to manage KMT's election campaigns in December, 2009, losing every single election since then, starts to spread news that he is not the one in charge (金溥聰自認非操盤手 只是總協調), paving the way for "it's not my fault" for the elections 5 months from now.

On the other side of aisle, DPP's candidate for Taipei Mayor, Su Tseng-chang (蘇貞昌) is said to already leading KMT's candidate, the incumbent Taipei mayor Hau Lung-bin (郝龍彬), by an undisclosed large margin in KMT's internal poll. DPP's chairperson and candidate for New Taipei City, Tsai Ing-Wen (蔡英文) is on an unstoppable speed train to a wider and wider popularity. People are saying that DPP's "Tsai Era" has come (蘋論：民進黨蔡英文時代來臨) or Taiwan's "Tsai Era" is here (台灣的蔡英文時代來臨). She is ranked #1 in the popularity in Taiwan's facebook in the category of political figure (蔡英文臉書facebook政治人氣榜奪冠 ). Some say that they would move to New Taipei City such that they can play a role in this era by casting a vote to Tsai (小英效應). Positive comments are coming from both green and blue camps, including some blue media that used to avoid positive news of green camp.

In contrary, her counter part, KMT's chairperson Ma Ying-jeou, whose degree of extraordinary incompetence is still deeply impressed in the mind of Taiwanese (in spite that he is still the favorite of many international media), is very very quiet from all these heating developments. Not very much spotlight is focusing on him, as though that he has disappeared. In previous local elections, Ma was seen as a plague of election (票房毒藥) many KMT candidates chose to avoid.

Now, among all these down turns, KMT hired Jaw Shaw-kong (趙少康) as the campaign adviser on June, 22 (BCC boss to serve as KMT adviser for year-end polls).

Jaw is one of the cofounders of New Party - a party that is categorized as "red" in Taiwan's "green-middle-blue-red" political spectrum. That is, it is even more pro-China than KMT in the blue camp is.

In a fast evolving political environment, people quickly learn that a common ground in the middle that fits most of the people is the best way to go. Forces on the extreme sides of the political spectrum would quickly fade out from the political battle field.

It was the fate of New Party, and that of Jaw's, too, who retired from the political arena after he lost to Chen Shui-bian in Taipei Mayor election in 1994.

Therefore, the re-appearing of a New Party heavyweight like Jaw to advise KMT on campaign indicates a desperate need of KMT to secure its own - and often extreme - supporters. It is a sign that KMT is losing blood in an unimaginable scale on all fronts, to an extent that they can hardly secure their own traditional base, let alone to spare attention on the middle ground.

The extent of KMT's desperation might be even much deeper if we take into account Jaw's past relationship with KMT. In the 1994 election mentioned above, Jaw insisted in competing with KMT's then incumbent Mayor Thomas Huang (黃大洲) and DPP's Chen Shui-bian even he was warned that he could split blue voters. Shortly prior to the election, that possibility suddenly came into his mind, so he asked his supporters to vote for Huang instead. But it was too late. Chen won (Chen 44%, Jaw 30%, Huang 26%, from here), in an election that marked the first in Taiwan's history in which the split of blue camp directly contributes to blue's loss.

That is, Jaw's act practically sabotaged the election and caused the KMT to lose. At least that's what people have in mind, and possibly that's why he had to retire.

Now, KMT is asking a guy who sabotaged their victory before to run the election for them. This shows how desperate KMT is.

With their history, the outcome of this desperate move might be in serious doubt. Jaw announced that he would "use his experience running in Taipei mayoral and councilor elections" to plan KMT's campaign. Again ?

Lets see ... on 6/24, two days after his appointment, he announced his campaign plan for the KMT (趙少康:蘇郝民調打平 郝就是輸). He started with a statement that according to the current opinion polls, KMT already lost in New Taipei City and Taipei.

He then pulled out his 3-step rescue plan for KMT's Taipei candidate Hau Lung-bin:

1. Tear down the bicycle path on Dunhua North Road and the bus path on Zhongxiao East East Road （拆除敦北自行車道、忠孝東路公車專用道）.

The bus path on Zhongxiao East Road is one of the things Ma Ying-jeou bragged about for his "achievement" in his 8-year Taipei Mayorship prior to Hau. The path is badly and carelessly designed like most, if not all, of Ma's major management plans are, and has turned into something that brought inconvenience to and complaints from citizens.

So the first thing Jaw suggests Hau to do is to tear down Ma's "achievement", in a way showing how incompetent Ma is, hoping to reflect that Hau's current bad performance is not entirely his fault.

The indication in his statement might not be far from the fact. In an earlier interview, DPP's Taipei city councilor Hsu Chia-ching (徐佳青) revealed that Hau's team in Taipei city was very angry about Ma. She described that Hau and his team couldn't do any thing forward because they have to spend full time cleaning up all those messes Ma created and left.

But for a KMT-hired strategist to put "trashing Ma" as the first step of campaign plan ?

2. Hau should admit that he didn't do well in the past 3 years so he can beg people for the second chance (承認過去三年做得不好，要選民再給一次機會).

Urrhh ... just how on earth is that gonna sell ?

3. "Effect of chicks-boost-hen" -- asking for the endorsement from the city councilor candidates in order to boost Hau's popularity (尋求議員候選人支持，以達到「小雞帶母雞」的效果)。

In Taiwan, when we apply the term "hen-boosts-chicks" (母雞帶小雞) to the politics, it means that a candidate of higher level elections (the hen, like city mayors, etc) is so popular that he/she can boost the popularity of lower level candidates (the chicks, like city councilors). In that case, lower candidates would fight for the spotlight of having a photo with "the hen".

On the other hand, higher level candidates who are so unpopular will be considered "plague of election", or "toxin of voting" (like Ma ying-jeou is now if he chooses to be a candidate) so the lower level candidates will avoid him/her at all cost.

What Jaw suggests now is to reverse the process to "chicks-boost-hen", asking lower level candidates to endorse an unpopular high level candidate whom they would otherwise avoid.

The meaning is clear: Hau is so disliked by the people, not only can't he play the "hen" role but also he has to rely on lower level candidates to risk their own elections to win.

Again, just how on earth is that gonna work ?

So, a summary of Jaw's plan:

1. Emphasize how incompetent Ma is in order to argue Hau is not that guilty;

2. Emphasize how incompetent Hau is in order to bag for the 2nd chance;

3. Admit how unpopular Hau is so he needs to ask KMT's lower level candidates to sacrifice in order to save his own ass.

Interestingly, this strategy of "incompetence admissions" is announced to the public, not delivered in an internal meeting.

Note:
Similar observations came up today. Both articles (in Chinese) cover much broader range of "phenomena" than mine :

五都選舉：國民黨大勢已去
(Five City Election: KMT's momentum is gone)

五都選戰--金馬指揮部亮紅燈 國民黨可能兵敗五都
(Five City Election: Red Alarm in King-Ma Commanding Center, KMT Could Lose All Five)

Ma Ying-jeou becomes the gustiest by wooing China

Regarding the issue of Ma Ying-jeou being selected as one of 5 gustiest world leaders in the Mental Floss (MF) magazine, I found the Q&A in MF's website here:

1. Who are the five leaders profiled for the “5 Gutsiest World Leaders” cover story?
Lula da Silva, Angela Merkel, Yoweri Museveni, Michelle Bachelet, Ma Ying-jeou.

It is presented as the cover story of the current issue, which requires a subscription to access. But the MF outlines the reasons these people are picked in an abstract here:

The World's Gutsiest Leaders
By Jennifer Drapkin

Whether they're healing a tortured nation, conquering AIDS, uniting Europe, galvanizing Latin America, or wooing China, these heads of state are proving that they have what it takes to change the world.

Ma Ying-jeou is among the gustiest because he is "wooing China."


Update:

The Mental Floss article about Ma can be found here. I saw it from this site: Mental_Floss 有關馬英九的報導全文

The article is full of bullshits. Just one example among many: it argues that because of CSB, the trades between China and Taiwan waned, that caused Taiwan's economics to go down, and that caused the Taiwan-USA relationship to go bad. With that kind of nonsense, MF reaches a conclusion that everything is settled after Ma, against all odds, arranged a very difficult marriage between China and Taiwan.

Is it expressed in a sarcastic manner? I don't think so. It is more like a regurgitation of bias against Taiwan we often see in western journalist circle, which only shows how poor the author's knowledge is.

Ma Ying-jeou in the most crucial hours of Morakot

He wants you to focus on how many were rescued such that you will forget how many lives were lost due to his blunders in the most crucial hours.
~~ Taiwan Echo ~~

The international community always portraits Taiwan's president Ma Ying-jeou as a capable politician who can achieve magics, without acknowledging the fact that every single construction or major policy under Ma's administration during his two terms (8 years) of the Taipei Mayorship ends up a disaster (go google, don't take my word for it).

All those facts of incompetence are hidden from the eyes of western readers by journalists whose reports literally conspire to mislead people by beautifying Ma Ying-jeou with layers of lies.

But now all those are torn apart completely by Ma's unbelievable blunders in response to the torment the Typhoon Morakot (莫拉克颱風) imposed upon innocent Taiwanese people. Finally, western journalists are forced to see with their own eyes how mistaken they were about this Harvard-educated, soft fluent-English-spoken Ma Ying-jeou.

Below are what the real Ma Ying-jeou - not the one painted by the media - did in the beginning of Morakot disaster -- the most crucial time to save lives.

(1) Attending a wedding party when Morakot strikes

Typhoon Morakot reached Hualian, Taiwan, at 11:50pm, August 7th. Taiwan has already suffered damages that day ^[1.1].

The next day (Aug, 8th), when the flooding got worse in southern Taiwan ^[1.2], Ma Ying-jeou didn't seem to make any attempt to prepare for any disaster. He started his schedule by attending a wedding party in Taipei in the evening. He spent 1.5 hr in the party, joked around and delivered a speech bragging about how great his China policy is. Only after then did he go to the Cabinet's Drought Disaster Relief Center (DDRC, 中央災害應變中心). What he did in DDRC is unknown, but none about the preparation against natural calamities was reported, let alone any evacuation order.

(2) Interfering rescue by rushing to the front line for the spot-light

When it got even worse the next day (Aug, 9th) ^[2.1], Ma, without taking any state-level measures, rushed to the front line where people were busy with real rescue efforts.

Receiving the president of a country, presumably the rescue personnel on-site have to stop their work to brief him (or not ?). His visit would crowd the area with his security guards. To ensure his safety, his visit would occupy personnel urgently needed for the rescue, thus reduce the manpower needed for saving lives. In fact, Ma Ying-jeou was stuck in Chiayi (嘉義）by the flooding, which turned himself into one needs to be rescued ^[2.2]. For that, he might be directly responsible for the death of many people who might otherwise be saved.

More incredible is, Ma Ying-jeou appeared in front of the camera with local KMT candidates wearing their campaign jackets ! What on earth did he want to achieve with that other than showing off in front of the camera ?

When 921 Earthquake happened back in 1999, former president Lee Teng-hui (李登輝) went to the rescue site quickly, too. However, before Lee went to the site, he and his government already initiated a series of state-level rescue measures in 13 minutes after the quake. A command center was established on the rescue site in a couple of hours. Lee convened a national security meeting the same day ^[2.3]. He went to the disaster site only after he had set up the government rescue mechanism and got himself fully informed of what's going on.

In contrary, Ma quickly rushed to the disaster scene empty-handed. No emergency meeting convened, no state-level rescue mechanism pre-arranged, no one in the government knows what they need to do. As shown in the website screen shot ^[2.4] of the Executive Yuan's National Disaster Prevention and Protection Commission (行政院災害防救委員會), when lives were lost and villages were swept away in the south on Aug. 9th, Ma's government still believes that there's no serious calamity and the most updated warning of disaster on that page is for an earthquake on Aug. 3rd !

Try imagining this after the hurricane Katrina: at the time the rescuing attempt started, USA's former president G.W. Bush flight from DC to the sites, putting himself in the center of rescue, shaking hands with people and posing in front of the spot-light to be interviewed by the media -- and all are done without any attempt of national coordination. Imagine that, and ask what would you think about Bush in this imagined scenario.

By showing up in the rescue site without any relief plan, Ma Ying-jeou shows us not only how spot-light-hungry he is, but also that he has no idea what a president's duty is..

As a result, his rushing to the front line achieved nothing other than endangering lives of many. The only thing guaranteed is that the image of him shaking hands with people on the rescue site gets shown on the front pages of news, as though the country will be ok as long as he looks good in the news.

(3) Messing up the rescue plan by giving direct orders

The rising waters at where Ma visited could get people drowned right at the time he was visiting, which won't look good in the news at all. Ignoring all procedures that might be crucial for the best allocation of limited resources, Ma used his cell phone to make a direct call to Taipei and ordered Taipei government to deliver pumps to Chiayi immediately ^[3.1],^[3.2].

Did he know who knows better where the pumps should be delivered, who knows the environment better, what type of pumps should be used in that environment, what other devices and personnel are needed for that mission, where else might be in much more urgent need of pumps, and how long does it take for the pumps from Taipei to be delivered?

Furthermore, as the president, does he know that he is the head of all military forces so he can instruct the army to help the rescue mission -- the army of all specialties (including the marine and special operation forces) that already stationed in Kaohsiung (高雄), Chishan (旗山), Linyuan (林園), Yanchao (燕巢), Gangshan (岡山), Tainan (台南) -- all in very close vicinity of Chiayi? Did he have any scintilla of idea what is available in southern part of Taiwan at all?

All those close military units were left alone when he tried to order pumps far from Taipei with a direct phone call. Does he has to perform in front of the camera as though he was the one doing something, and no one else is doing anything ? It did make it easier for him to play the blaming games to cover his incompetence, didn't it ?

With his poor knowledge about available resources and his poor judgment by giving direct orders without knowledge of the overall situation, Ma messed up the rescue and might have jeopardized lives of more citizens.

(4) Leading the country toward the game of finger-pointing

When Ma and his government didn't do any preventive preparations, didn't warn the victims about how serious it could be, didn't issue any evacuation order to the disaster area, didn't keep track of what damages already being done and what misery people are already suffering, and Ma himself went to a wedding party when people were about to lose their own or family's lives (some lost entire family of 15 or more), Ma Ying-jeou has the audacity to show up in front of the camera to pin the fault on the suffering victims!

What kind of cruelty is hidden behind the facade of the apparant eloquent gestures and a mouthful of fluent English ?

He also blames The Central Weather Bureau (中央氣象局) for not being able to make precise prediction, without the knowledge that the weather prediction is extremely difficult, especially the rain level.

He also blames local governments for no disaster prevention constructions, without acknowledging that the disaster relief budgets were often cut by the Legislative Yuan in which his KMT members always has the majority.

He even blames the weather, saying that the rescue is delayed by the disaster that damaged the roads, forgetting that human can still walk without roads. In fact, there were at least several members of special operations force took a leave from their station, went back to the disaster area to rescue their families. They had to take a leave because no one in Ma Ying-jeou's administration ordered them to do anything when lives of their families were in danger. They were able to rescue people by themselves, but Ma Ying-jeou wants you to believe that it's the weather that makes military rescue impossible.

Even after days of heavy criticism from international media, in an interview by CNN, Ma YJ finally said he will take full responsibility. But he followed immediately with what he means by taking responsibility -- punishing others ^[4.1]. His definition of taking the responsibility is to blame all wrongs on others but himself, as though that people should have got everything done and ready for him to sit there enjoying the life of an emperor worry-free. Those who didn't make sure that happens should take all the blames.

(5) He doesn't know what to do in a disaster relief meeting

When the 921 earthquake stroke in 1999, former president Lee Tenghui convened the first high-level national security meeting (國安高層會議) to lay out his rescue plan on the first day, and had the second meeting 2 days later.

Why did it take Ma 7 days to convene such a meeting? We will never know, but what he did in the first meeting might shed some light.

Taiwan has accumulated experiences of disaster rescue channel and established pretty good disaster response mechanism during the past decades. But when a disaster of this scale happens, often a system like that is not enough. Foreign aid will flow in, which might involve diplomatic issues beyond a domestic rescue channel can handle. It also involves the deployment of military personnel and resources, which requires an assessment of the balance between rescuing victims and defending the country. The re-distribution of reserved resources is way beyond the authority of a routine rescue system.

This is when a national security meeting should step in. By convening such a meeting, the president should lay the foundation to coordinate all those different resources and channel them to the rescue system. He should monitor and give instructions on how the routine rescue system, the foreign aids, the military reserves, the local and central governments should coordinate. And he should play that role of watching all channels of forces until all problems are solved.

Unfortunately, none of the above was conducted by Ma Ying-jeou in his 7-day-late meeting ^[5.1]. Nothing on the coordination on the national level that only the president can do is discussed or planned (for example, how to handle foreign aids is completely missing in the meeting). Instead, Ma's speech is full of impractical wishful thinking like "I hope...", "... very important", "we should ...", "we must ...". Other than that, he issues instructions that the head of rescue system can issue, which includes the only significant instruction he gave in the meeting -- mobilizing the students of police academics.

Among all mumbo jumbo, he did remember to start the speech by bragging how many people his government rescued by emphasizing that it's the record high. In fact, he keeps mentioning this in every chance he got, as though he has done a cherity service to the victims so poeple should not have complained. This kind of bragging is surely not you want to hear in a meeting like that.

Now we see why the meeting was delayed --- he has no idea at all what he should do with such a meeting !!! Such a disaster-handling meeting requires him to behave like a commander who makes new problem-solving decisions but not just regurgitating what he memorized. This is something far beyond his ability, and his fear of taking on it shows that he knows it by heart.

Ma Ying-jeou's fear of taking up the responsibility doesn't stop there. After the meeting, he refused to take the command. He handed over all responsibilities to the rescue team. The government claims that what is left will now all count on the routine rescue system, so Ma will retreat behind the first line of rescue and reconstruction, leaving himself completely out of future responsibilities ^[5.2].

So what is left for Ma Ying-jeou to be responsible for? Full time blame hunter to hunt down those who did nothing because Ma never gave any order?

Ma Ying-jeou has been either a government official or people's elected all his adult life, yet his extremely poor knowledge on the duty of a government's job and his complete lack of sense of responsibility would guarantee that there's a long long way of future suffering for Taiwanese to endure.


The above is a retrospect to part of Ma Ying-jeou's blunders in the most crucial hours of Morakot disaster. His unprecedented incompetence followed by the act of 100% responsibility shirking stun those who thought Ma Ying-jeou was a savior of Taiwan. Even KMT high-level feels something is seriously wrong --- after all, they just handed this incompetent pretty-face camera boy the absolute power by electing him the KMT's chairman.

There are a lot more unbelievable blunders happened and are happening (just google !), so I'll stop here for now. For Ma Ying-jeou, he might be burning his scarce brain cells calculating how to shirk all responsibilities by finger-pointing and by bragging what record he had achieved to make people think that it's a previlige to have him as the president.

For most Taiwanese, however, judging from the fact that Ma failed to get a single collapsed building rebuilt in 7 years (see my post in 2006, Hopeless quake victims under Ma Ying-Jeou's lead), the suffering has just begun.

---

Flip-flopper Ma Ying-jeou Changes Tongue on his Cross-Strait Promise

Twisting the meaning of a promise is the way a flip-flopper keeps promises.
~~ Taiwan Echo ~~

Common Wealth Magazine (天下雜誌) had an interview (in Chinese) with Mr. Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) on June, 11th, the first interview of Ma after Ma flip-flops on his pre-election promise of not campaigning for the KMT Chairman.

During the interview, Mr. Ma broke another promise on his intention regarding the cross-strait relationship, one that is much more crucial to Taiwan's future.

It is the 不統不獨不武 that Mr. Ma promised to the people of Taiwan before the election. The promise is translated to English by Ma's regime as:

No unification, No independence and No use of force

(See the regime's website for English translation of phrases.)

The words clearly mean "don't push for" or "don't want." It is more so in Chinese language, since the character "統" usually means an "action" (as a verb, like "unify") instead of "state of fact" (as a noun, like "unification"). The character "不" also bares the meaning of determination, means "I don't" or "I won't", but not a simple "no" as shown in English.

So a more precise translation of 不統不獨不武 should have been:

I won't push for unification, I won't push for independent, I won't use force

That's the promise he made at a time he needed trust of Taiwanese to give him the power.

Now, during the above-mentioned interview, Mr. Ma made a drastic twist (see also: 馬英九對統一議題表態引發爭議) on his own words (highlight by me):

我提出的不統不獨不武，八成民眾都支持，不統不是排除統一這個選項，而是在我任期八年內不去討論統一問題，因為這八年不可能有答案，這討論意義不大。

My 不統不獨不武 was supported by 80% of the people. The 不統 doesn't mean to exclude the option of "unification." It means that in my term of 8-year presidency we don't discuss the unification, because it's impossible to have an answer (on the unification) in these 8 years, so the discussion on this subject is insignificant.

After convincing most of Taiwanese that he won't push for the unification, he now twists the word into "no discussion." The alarming signal of his twist:

1) Ma's regime can push for the unification between Taiwan and China. As long as no discussion is made, his promise will be kept;

2) It's ok for Ma's regime to push for the unification without discussion with any one;

3) To make sure that his twisted promise is kept, any "discussion" of Ma's attempt of pushing the unification might be suppressed by Ma's regime.

This is a huge, huge turn of direction in terms of Ma Regime's cross-strait announcement. After twisting the meaning of his promise, Mr. Ma can now push the annexation of Taiwan to China and still tell people that his promise is kept.

Lastly, as side note, Mr. Ma has again displayed how he puts himself above the Constitution. In every one of his interviews that I know of, this person keeps mentioning that his term of presidency is 8 years, while Taiwanese only gave him 4-year of presidency, and most importantly, the time span of a president is defined as 4 years in the Constitution.

The interview covers many other subjects that I don't have time to share here.

Update: an English version of Mr. Ma's interview is found here.

Update2: a-gu's view and readers' comments on Mr. Ma's interview : Fallout from Ma interview: probably zero.

Next Time When Mr. Ma Ying-jeou Promises Something ...

To a flip-flopping politician, a promise is a road to power.
It ends where the power starts. ~~ Taiwan Echo ~~

Taiwan President (who presents himself as a Mr. in front of China) Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九先生) announced yesterday his intention to campaign for the chairman of the ruling party KMT. (昔主張總統不得兼主席// 馬：兼黨主席 義無反顧 )

Mr. Ma Ying-jeou was elected Taiwan President in March, 2008. Before then, in October of 2007 when he needed people's votes to grab the power, he promised to the public that he will never take the position of KMT chairman no matter what happens (馬上吳下 馬今宣布選黨魁):

國民黨總統參選人馬英九今天明確表示，雖然國民黨沒有特別規定總統與黨主席兩項職務的兼任與否，但他若當選總統後，不管在任何情況下，都絕不會競選黨主席，因為當總統的人本來就應專心國政。

KMT's presidential candidate, Ma Ying-jeou, states clearly today, that although KMT doesn't have the rule to regulate if a person can take both the government president seat and KMT chairman concurrently, he will never campaign for the party chairman under any circumstance if he is elected the president. He says that the duty of a president require full focus on the state administration.

He elaborated his promise further (馬英九：專心國政 若當總統絕不兼黨主席):

記者問馬英九當選總統後是否將兼任黨主席，馬英九回答，「當然不會，我怎麼會去兼任黨主席呢」？他指出，國民黨主席須由黨員直選，不是當了總統就能當黨主席，黨政分離講求的是各有所司，而且當總統當然要專心國政。
When a journalist asked Ma if he will take KMT chairman concurrently after he is elected president. Ma says, "Of course not! Why on earth would I chair KMT concurrently?" Ma mentioned that KMT chairman has to be voted by party members but not be taken by the president. Ma also emphasized that the idea of "separation of party and government" is to stress that the party and government focuses on separate responsibilities, so certainly a president should focus on the state administration.

馬英九表示，雖然國民黨沒有對總統與黨主席兩項職務的兼任與否有特別規定，例如原本是黨主席，若選上總統可以繼續做到任滿，但也可選舉辭職，不管在任何情況下，他都不會去做黨主席。
Ma says, although KMT doesn't have a rule to regulate, for example, if a KMT chairman is elected the president, he is allowed to serve the full term of chairman or resign. But no matter under what situations, he will never chair KMT concurrently.

The promise was made at a time when he needed the public to entrust him with people's power, now all gone in the wind after he got the power in hand.

Is this sort of promise-breaking new to this person ?

Check out how he flip-flops before and after he grabs the power on the issues like "condemning Tiananmen mascara", "praise Dalai Lama" ... etc.

Chinese has a idiom:

人而無信，不知其可
When one can't keep his promises, we can't expect him be capable of doing anything.

Considering himself who upholds the traditional, legitimate Chinese culture, Mr. Ma Ying-jeou's behavior simply proves otherwise.

Next time, when you hear this person promise you something, you should know what to expect.

Update:

In an interview of Mr. Ma on 6/11/09:

With his candidacy Ma broke his earlier promise not to serve concurrently as president and KMT chairman.

Comparison of approval rates between Chen and Ma conducted by pro-Ma media

The chart is a translation of its chinese version created by BillyPan. It might give you some idea about why Ma Ying-jeou and KMT hate and fear Chen Shui-bian so much.

Ma Pampered Taiwan Police into Terrorists

Check out the following blogs to see how Taiwan police brings harassment and fears into the daily lives of a violence victim -- and his friends, neighbors and family -- of the recent Tainan violence incident:

(1) 我被警察監控!!?? (in Chinese, a blog written by one of the students protesters)

(2) More from the Tainan Incident (By Arthur Dent)

Also, don't miss this video of the violence from a birdz view angle.

You can see that the police allowed the violence to happen, and then arrested the violence victims immediately.

But this is not the first time. The cooperation between the police and the gangsters seems to become a pattern that Ma Ying-jeou allowed it to keep going.

It's clear that the police is where the problem really is. Without any punishment on those police-turned-gangsters, Ma Ying-jeou has practically pampered Taiwan police into a force of national terrorists ...

Awkward, Secret and Nontransparant Interactions

The interactions between USA President Barak Obama and his wife Michelle has transmitted the warmth of love around the world, which is in line perfectly with Obama's emphasis on the family values.

In contrary, The interaction between Ma Ying-jeou and his wife in public transmits a totally different image.

Ma's wife, Chow Mei-ching(周美青), is the honorary president of Taiwan's Red Cross, which had a ceremony yesterday. Ma was invited to be a special guest to award prizes.

According to this report by udn:

應邀頒獎的馬英九，西裝筆挺進場，周美青正好要上台，夫妻交錯而過，四目交接連招呼都沒打，一人向左轉，一人向右轉，彷彿在演電影。
Dressed in trim suits, Ma Ying-jeou, who was invited to award prizes, entered the room when Chow was walking toward the stage. They saw each other, passed each other without even a greeting. They then turned to opposite directions, as though they were performing in a movie.

The distinct strangeness between them is extremely weird. Not only wasn't there any single word exchange during the entire event, but also their seats were arranged in opposite sides of a walkway.

This type of interaction is rarely seen even between political rivals who have fought hard against each other all their lives.

Ma started his speech with a very formal greeting to his wife, "The honorary president Chow ...". The entire room brought into laughters, but Chow didn't show much facial expression in response.

Ma finished his speech and it's Chow's turn to award prizes. They kept a distance when they were both on the stage without any interaction, until later the president of Taiwan Red Cross, C.V.Chen (陳長文), dragging them closer and painstakingly forced them to shake hand.

That awkward handshaking was the only contact between the two. The photo taken reveals how strange it is (see it here. If it disappears, see the bottom of this post, my highlight).

Chinese always brag about the family values as the distinct feature of Chinese tradition that is missing in the Western countries. It is quite ironic that the family harmony are now displayed and emphasized by the USA's first family but Ma Ying-jeou's family displays the lack of it.


Talking about C.V. Chen, I am not sure if it is well known to the outside world that he is one of the masterminds behind the scene to push Ma Ying-jeou to sell out Taiwan with the economic plans.

According to this report (in Chinese; check the bottom of this post for a google-translated version), Ma Ying-jeou knew very well that the plan of ECFA is "Shoot first without knowing where the target is," and C.V. Chen, who has been Ma's lawyer for a long time, is the real power behind the scene to control all the steps and even the direction of all cross-strait policies.

That is, the entire crew of the government's Mainland Affairs Council (MAC, 陸委會), supposedly the official authority to deal with cross-strait affairs according to the law, is left out of valuable information, critical secret meetings and behind the table decisions and surrendering packs between Ma's government and China. It is rendered completely powerless. Ma Ying-jeou did his sellout plan by violating the law and by avoiding the monitoring of Taiwanese people. The MAC and president of MAC, the green-turning-blue former legislators-at-large of Taiwan Solidarity Union(台聯) Lai Shin-yuan（賴幸媛) are played as tools to present a false impression of law-binding upfront to the camera, and to shoulder responsibility in case things went wrong.


Reference: Google-translated version of the report:

"BIG BROTHER C.V.Chen's critical role in Ma Ying-jeou's ECFA rush"

Ma Ying-jeou, to promote ECFA admits is "first and then painting the target archery," he has always been indecisive, this time to show "non-doing can not be" the arbitrary will of Ma Ying-jeou's cross-strait issues, "Big Brother" Chen Chang-wen, a key role.

台海網5月3日訊盡管反對黨與弱勢產業強力反對，馬英九推動與中國大陸洽簽“兩岸經貿合作架構協議”（ECFA）的政策已是“既定”了！

Network across the Taiwan Strait on May 3 hearing despite strong industry opposition and weak opposition, Ma Ying-jeou, to promote contact with mainland China signed the "cross-strait trade and economic cooperation framework agreement" (ECFA) has been the policy is "established" again!

這背後的決策過程究竟是怎麼回事？

This decision-making process behind how exactly is going on?

不要說多數民眾搞不清楚，事實上“馬政府”部門大部分的單位也在狀況外，只是聽命辦事與跑腿的份，真正的極少數核心中，以台灣“紅十字總會”會長陳長文的“體制外”角色最為關鍵。

Most people do not say it was, in fact, "the Macedonian government" sector is also the situation of most of the units, the only orders of the act and run errands, the real core of the very few to Taiwan's "Red Cross" president Chen the "outside the system" the most crucial role.

一位跟隨馬多年的策士說，“國安會”秘書長蘇起因為職務身分當然參與決策，但他還不是靈魂人物，外界至今沒有注意到，理律法律事務所陳長文才是真正在馬面前擁有兩岸事務重要發言權的人。

One of the advisers for many years to follow the horse said, "the National Security Council," the Secretary-General Su Chi of course, because the identity of participation in decision-making positions, but he is not the soul of the outside world has not noticed that the rationale for legal law firm of Chen Chang-wen is the real face of the horse have an important say in cross-strait affairs people.

陳長文在馬英九的外省權貴小圈圈中較年長，是老大，一九九二年前後，兩岸關系在李登輝推動對話之初，陳長文即屬於郝柏村一系的對中國大陸談判主力。

Ma Ying-jeou, Chen Chang-wen in the other provinces in the small circle of powerful older is the eldest child, before and after 1992, cross-strait relations, Lee Teng-hui to promote dialogue in the beginning, that is, Chen Pei-tsun is a series of talks on the Chinese mainland main.

兩岸透過紅十字會在金門的會談，開了海峽雙方在冷戰結束後的接觸先聲，陳長文的強悍主導，甚至連李登輝都無法事先取得其談判內容。

Through the Red Cross-strait talks in Kinmen, the Strait opened end of the Cold War between the two sides in contact with the first crack, the powerful Chen-led, and even Lee could not obtain the contents of their talks.

馬英九同個時期是“陸委會”副主委，是陳長文的小老弟，能力與參與度遠遠不及，只有敬重的份。

Ma Ying-jeou is the same period of the "Mainland Affairs Council," vice chairman, is the小老弟Chen, capacity and participation is far less than that only of respect.

後來，李登輝為了取回兩岸決策權，設立了海基會，以台籍大佬辜振甫坐鎮，才結束了陳長文的“代理權”，但陳長文在中國大陸的關系與人脈經營始終不輟，他本人也一向抱有高度興趣。

Later, Lee Teng-hui's decision-making power in order to get the two sides, the establishment of the Straits Exchange Foundation, Koo Chen-fu in Taiwan Gangster boss before the end of Chen's "proxy", but Chen Chang-wen in mainland China relations and the network operators do not always stop, and he has always had a high degree of interest.

不顧反對執意推動馬英九有“壓力”？

Ma Ying-jeou, despite the opposition to insist on promoting the "pressure"?

消息指出，稍早傳出馬妻周美青擬以紅十字會名譽會長的身分訪問中國大陸，並非空穴來風，積極的穿針引線者正是陳長文，當初周美青以“總統”夫人兼任紅十字會職務，就是陳長文的游說與安排，可見兩家交情的密切。

News that the horse was the wife of weeks earlier the United States Green intended to be honorary president of the identity of the Red Cross to visit mainland China is not groundless, a positive go-between who is Chen Chang-wen, ZHOU Mei-Ching was the "president" as his wife, the Red Cross office is Chen Changwen lobbying and arrangements, we can see two close friends.

陳長文之所以建議規劃周美青訪中，系認為周美青的“第一夫人”身分柔性，但又具有相當代表性，在馬英九本人不適宜的情況下，周美青代夫出征可有破冰的意義，必然造成兩岸盛事。

Chen suggested that the planning week why Green's visit to the United States, the Department believes that the United States Green Week's "first lady" status flexibility, but is very representative, I am not suitable in the case of Ma Ying-jeou, the week-fu battle on behalf of the United States Green may have the significance of ice-breaking, necessarily lead to cross-strait events.

不過後因消息曝光，引起一些波瀾，但整起計劃並未胎死腹中，只是在等待適當的時機。

But after news caused some waves, but since the whole scheme is not aborted, but are waiting for the right time.

陳長文可以出面“喬”周美青的訪中事宜，他在馬英九的兩岸政策上置喙，也是輕而易舉之事，事實上陳長文的角色還不只這般，由於長年律師談判的專業，他涉入兩岸秘密溝通之深，遠超過外界想像。

Chen can come, "Joe" Zhou's visit to the United States in matters relating to Green, he's Ma Ying-jeou's cross-strait policy say, is easy, in fact, the role of Chen not only so, as a result of long negotiations, a professional lawyer, he involved in cross-strait secret communication, deep, far more than outsiders imagine.

一位知情者就指出，“兩岸經濟合作架構協議”不論叫CECA或是ECFA，兩岸之間已經有相當共同推動的默契，而陳長文穿梭其中厥功至偉，馬英九之所以不把反對聲浪當回事，執意要推動，是因為早就已經傳話對方了，現在不能讓對岸感覺他怎麼“罩不住”。

Insiders pointed out that a "cross-strait economic cooperation framework agreement," regardless of CECA or call ECFA, that there are already between the two sides and jointly promote the understanding, and Chen Jue Gong shuttle them to Wei, Ma Ying-jeou, the opposition did not seriously, determined to promote, because the other side have already sent a message, and now the other side should not be allowed to feel how he "could not cover."

胡錦濤藉《告台灣同胞書》三十周年發表“胡六點”對台政策方針，大力鼓吹兩岸簽署經濟合作協議之前，馬英九的信差就已經與大陸接觸試探了風向，據悉大陸傳達只要遵守“一個中國”，什麼都好談的立場，“關稅的調降項目與比例都屬於枝節問題”。

Hu Jintao, the "Message to Compatriots in Taiwan" the thirtieth anniversary of the "Hu six" policy toward Taiwan, strongly advocated the signing of cross-strait economic cooperation agreement, Ma Ying-jeou of the messenger contacts with the mainland has been testing the wind, it is learned that as long as the message to comply with the mainland "one China," nothing to talk about the position, "the lowering of tariffs and the proportion of the project are minor issues."

這個信息讓馬英九相當振奮，認為大陸有讓步的誠意，他只要想辦法說服台灣內部對“一中”的疑懼即可。

Ma Ying-jeou of the information so that a very exciting, that compromise the sincerity of the mainland, he just try to persuade Taiwan to the "one China" to the doubts and fears.

陳長文這派主張，兩岸當前的要務在“務實”，以扭轉民進黨過去八年因“台獨”而拖延了兩岸經貿關系正常化的期程，現在要加快速度補回來，“一中”的架構現在誰也吃不掉誰，待中國大陸將來民主化之後，謀求兩岸統一亦是水到渠成之事，“不是大問題”。

Chen claims that school, the two sides to the current works in the "pragmatic" in order to reverse the DPP over the past eight years because of the "Taiwan independence" and delay the normalization of cross-strait economic and trade relations between the phase-way, and now back up to speed, "one in the "framework now can not eat no one who will be the democratization of mainland China, the pursuit of cross-strait unification is easily realized," is not a big problem. "

在這樣的評估下，馬英九隨即指示“體制內”的蘇起規畫後續推動事宜，二月中旬他講出簽署CECA已是“既定政策”，目的即在著手鋪陳輿論氣氛，“國安會”之後並出面召集跨“部會”會議，就CECA進行政策宣達，並做成改名為ECFA的決策建議，並由馬英九本人上電視公開宣布。

In this assessment, the Ma Ying-jeou was instructed, "the system" from the Soviet Union plan to promote the follow-up issues, he said in mid-February the signing of the CECA is the "established policy" to proceed to lay out in a climate of public opinion, "the National Security Council "and come after the inter-called" ministerial "meeting on propaganda CECA policy and changed its name to ECFA into the decision-making suggested that Ma Ying-jeou, I am on television by public announcement.

賴幸媛狀況外，尹啟銘當衝鋒官

Lai Shin-yuan position, Chii-ming, when EU officials

此一由上而下的交辦，大陸政策主管機關“陸委會”從頭到尾都是狀況外，不僅賴幸媛未在第一時間理解“上面是要玩真的”，幾個資深的副主委甚至持保留態度，認為應該循序漸進不宜躁進，因此在公開記者會上的多次發言，事後很快都被証實純屬“個人意見”，不代表決策意向，這讓“陸委會”十分尷尬。

This top-down tasks, the mainland policy of the competent authority "MAC" is the situation from start to finish, the Lai Shin-yuan, not only did not understand the first time "above is to play really," the vice-chairman of a number of senior even has reservations about the gradual and orderly progress should not be impatient, so in a public statement at a press conference several times, have been confirmed soon afterwards purely a "personal opinion", does not mean that decision-making intention, which allow the "MAC" very embarrassing.

被馬英九盛贊為“不可多得人才”的“經濟部長”尹啟銘，則在“行政院長”劉兆玄點名後，承命擔任第一線的衝鋒官，要用力鼓動ECFA的風潮，並負責聯系相關產業界出面聲援，以制造民意支持度。

Ma Ying-jeou praised for being "a rare talent" and "Minister of Economic Affairs," Chii-ming, in the "premier" Liu named after the order for the EU as first-line officers, it is necessary to force the wave of the ECFA advocate and is responsible for contact Solidarity with the relevant industry come forward in order to create public support.

但是由於民進黨在蔡英文領軍下強烈反對，學界與內需傳統產業界群起質疑“政府”缺乏溝通說明的程序，一度讓馬英九極不高興，認為“經濟部”做得不夠，再度要求在四月份強力宣傳與中國大陸簽署ECFA的好處與必要性，可見決策當局的勢在必行。

However, due to the DPP leader Tsai Ing-wen, under the strong opposition from academics and industry Strong domestic demand to question the traditional "government" procedures that lack of communication, so that Ma Ying-jeou was very upset, saying that "the Ministry of Economic Affairs," has not done enough to once again request strong publicity in April, signed with China the benefits and necessity of ECFA, the imperative can be seen the decision-making authorities.

不過，一位“政府”人士私下坦承，馬英九在3月20日的記者會表示今年下半年ECFA會有初步進展，這種講法不僅冒險，而且完全不符合談判的常規。

However, a "government" who privately admitted that Ma Ying-jeou in the March 20 press conference that the second half of this year there will be initial progress ECFA, this is not only risky, but totally inconsistent with the conventional negotiations.

一來是，政府內部對ECFA的內容根本就還沒有充分的討論與研究，甚至委托“中經院”做的評估需要一段時間後才出爐，提早訂出時間表顯得草率；其次，在反對黨未被尊重，以及多數民眾不解ECFA是什麼的情況下，此舉勢必增加未來更大的反彈阻力；最重要的是，與大陸尚未上桌，這樣先掀底牌的行為，會讓日後的談判者綁手綁腳、腹背受敵。

For one thing, is that the Government of the content of ECFA is simply not adequate discussion and research, and even commissioned "by the hospital in" The assessment will take some time after the release, scheduled to appear early in haste; Secondly, the opposition has not been respect, as well as the majority of people understand what is the ECFA circumstances, it is bound to increase the rebound in the future a greater resistance; most important thing is that with the mainland has not been on the table, so that the behavior first hand lift, the negotiators will be tied hands tied,腹背受敌.

由“體制外”先行、“體制內”追趕的決策，馬英九再度做了一次大冒險，ECFA顯然不夠細膩的操作，接續會不會引起朝野間新一波的對峙衝突？

From "outside the system," first, "the system" to catch up with the decision-making, Ma Ying-jeou again did a great adventure, ECFA delicate operation is clearly not enough, following the ruling and opposition parties will not cause a new wave of confrontation between the conflict?

政府不透明的決策黑箱，會不會造成缺乏監督的高度疑慮？

Opaque black box of government decision-making, lack of supervision will not cause a high degree of concern?

恐怕是政壇下一個蠢蠢欲動的風暴。

I am afraid that the political arena is ready for the next storm.

（來源:台灣《財訊》月刊） (Source: Taiwan's "Wealth" magazine)

Reference: