外國的政治社會不是民進黨的責任

蔡英文在她的臉書與 Google+ 發表了關於中國六四紀念的談話，強調了六四在中國民主的關鍵地位，以及對於六四的平反的重要性。最後，蔡英文以這樣的一段做結尾【1】：

中國社會在這些年來歷經了快速的轉變，我們要看到這些轉變，更要促成中國社會往自由、民主化的方向轉變。國民黨並沒有扛起這樣的責任，也無意促成這樣的轉變，我們期待民進黨把責任扛在肩上，這是台灣民主的價值，也是我們一直不斷追求的目標。

把中國民主化當作民進黨的責任？

民進黨是由黨員組成的團體，交黨費的是黨員，服務的對象主要也是黨員。因此民進黨第一層『責任範疇』是民進黨黨員。

如果民進黨出來競選，也有不少非民進黨黨員的台灣人支持他們，並透過投票的方式賦予他們權力。藉此，民進黨的『責任範疇』會擴大到整個台灣。由此，民進黨應該負責的對象，一是民進黨員，二是台灣人。

但民進黨的『責任範疇』僅止於此。外國或外國人既不是民進黨的權力賦予者，更不是民進黨的資源提供者，民進黨對他們沒有任何義務，更不需對他們負擔什麼責任。

民進黨只要專心把自己黨內的事情做好，好好的做一個為黨員負責的政黨，然後好好的做一個為台灣的自由民主化負責的政黨，讓台灣成為一個民主的榜樣。這才是民進黨的 『責任範疇』 。

因此，不管從哪個角度看，民進黨既沒有義務，更沒有權力把台灣以外任何國家的政治制度或社會現象當做民進黨的責任。

事實上，不管是任何國家的任何政黨，把其他國家的政治社會當作自己的責任，都會是一件很荒謬的事。

我向來對蔡英文非常欣賞的一點，是她知道『分寸』 -- 一個位置的 『責任範疇』 在哪裡，站在該位置的人該對誰負責，她抓得比誰都清楚。如果不是她權責範圍，她不會撈過界搶著做。

但是，這次把外國的民主化當作一個政黨的責任，顯然是大大地撈過了界。

國民黨向來以『台灣人必須為中國未來負責』的心態在處理台灣跟中國的關係。因此我們看到許多由全國人民的納稅錢累積的政府資產，沒有適當地回饋給台灣人，反而被拿去優待、撫養、資助中國人。

這種情況造成人民賦予的權力被挪用到該權力不應該使用的地方，變成對該負責的對象沒負到責，對不該負責的對象卻搶著籠絡的不正常現象。這種現象對台灣人來說是一種歧視，因為那種心態等於說台灣人應該做牛做馬讓外國人過好日子。

這一切問題的根源，正是無法清楚劃分『責任範疇』。如果民進黨真的把外國的政治、社會現象當作自己的責任，那恐將走向國民黨把資源用在外國的錯誤心態。蔡英文的這個說法，恐怕是把政黨的責任範疇給搞模糊了。

民進黨應該盡力讓自己、讓台灣做一個可以學習的榜樣。至於外國要不要學，那是外國人的選擇，不是台灣人的責任，更不是民進黨的責任。若從另一個角度來看，中國人應該學著對自己的政治制度與社會文化負責，而台灣人也應該學著尊重中國人自己的選擇。如果搶要把中國民主化當作民進黨的責任，那表示我們認為中國人沒有能力對自己負責，那是對中國人的侮辱。

【1】蔡英文：民進黨需扛起中國民主化責任
https://plus.google.com/u/0/114541410033130759915/posts/2GJG9bMa6xN

KMT's 5-City Campaign Strategy: Admit Incompetence on All Fronts

In the year-end election of Five Cities (五都選舉), the common perception was that the KMT will take the 3 on the north (Taipei, New Taipei City, and Taichung), and DPP will secure the 2 to the south (Tainan and Kaohsiung). KMT's original estimation was 3 easy victories, with the possibility of winning 4 or even 5.

The recent development, however, displays a dramatic twist of trend, indicating that the possibility of "KMT losing all 5" might not be too far fetched.

The signs are showing up on a daily or even hourly basis (see how exciting Taiwan's politics is). Public opinion polls from various sources -- including those from KMT's own, and that from blue media -- say DPP reaches a tie or even winning significantly in New Taipei City and Taipei, and is catching up quickly in Taichung. In Taiwan's politics, a tie in polls so early would mean that KMT will lose by ~20% in the real elections.

The alarming sign forced KMT to call for an emergency meeting on June, 19 (北北都選情拉警報 馬今密商).

At the mean time, KMT Secretary-General King Pu-tsung (金溥聰), who was considered Ma Ying-jiou's last life-saving card and was hired to manage KMT's election campaigns in December, 2009, losing every single election since then, starts to spread news that he is not the one in charge (金溥聰自認非操盤手 只是總協調), paving the way for "it's not my fault" for the elections 5 months from now.

On the other side of aisle, DPP's candidate for Taipei Mayor, Su Tseng-chang (蘇貞昌) is said to already leading KMT's candidate, the incumbent Taipei mayor Hau Lung-bin (郝龍彬), by an undisclosed large margin in KMT's internal poll. DPP's chairperson and candidate for New Taipei City, Tsai Ing-Wen (蔡英文) is on an unstoppable speed train to a wider and wider popularity. People are saying that DPP's "Tsai Era" has come (蘋論：民進黨蔡英文時代來臨) or Taiwan's "Tsai Era" is here (台灣的蔡英文時代來臨). She is ranked #1 in the popularity in Taiwan's facebook in the category of political figure (蔡英文臉書facebook政治人氣榜奪冠 ). Some say that they would move to New Taipei City such that they can play a role in this era by casting a vote to Tsai (小英效應). Positive comments are coming from both green and blue camps, including some blue media that used to avoid positive news of green camp.

In contrary, her counter part, KMT's chairperson Ma Ying-jeou, whose degree of extraordinary incompetence is still deeply impressed in the mind of Taiwanese (in spite that he is still the favorite of many international media), is very very quiet from all these heating developments. Not very much spotlight is focusing on him, as though that he has disappeared. In previous local elections, Ma was seen as a plague of election (票房毒藥) many KMT candidates chose to avoid.

Now, among all these down turns, KMT hired Jaw Shaw-kong (趙少康) as the campaign adviser on June, 22 (BCC boss to serve as KMT adviser for year-end polls).

Jaw is one of the cofounders of New Party - a party that is categorized as "red" in Taiwan's "green-middle-blue-red" political spectrum. That is, it is even more pro-China than KMT in the blue camp is.

In a fast evolving political environment, people quickly learn that a common ground in the middle that fits most of the people is the best way to go. Forces on the extreme sides of the political spectrum would quickly fade out from the political battle field.

It was the fate of New Party, and that of Jaw's, too, who retired from the political arena after he lost to Chen Shui-bian in Taipei Mayor election in 1994.

Therefore, the re-appearing of a New Party heavyweight like Jaw to advise KMT on campaign indicates a desperate need of KMT to secure its own - and often extreme - supporters. It is a sign that KMT is losing blood in an unimaginable scale on all fronts, to an extent that they can hardly secure their own traditional base, let alone to spare attention on the middle ground.

The extent of KMT's desperation might be even much deeper if we take into account Jaw's past relationship with KMT. In the 1994 election mentioned above, Jaw insisted in competing with KMT's then incumbent Mayor Thomas Huang (黃大洲) and DPP's Chen Shui-bian even he was warned that he could split blue voters. Shortly prior to the election, that possibility suddenly came into his mind, so he asked his supporters to vote for Huang instead. But it was too late. Chen won (Chen 44%, Jaw 30%, Huang 26%, from here), in an election that marked the first in Taiwan's history in which the split of blue camp directly contributes to blue's loss.

That is, Jaw's act practically sabotaged the election and caused the KMT to lose. At least that's what people have in mind, and possibly that's why he had to retire.

Now, KMT is asking a guy who sabotaged their victory before to run the election for them. This shows how desperate KMT is.

With their history, the outcome of this desperate move might be in serious doubt. Jaw announced that he would "use his experience running in Taipei mayoral and councilor elections" to plan KMT's campaign. Again ?

Lets see ... on 6/24, two days after his appointment, he announced his campaign plan for the KMT (趙少康:蘇郝民調打平 郝就是輸). He started with a statement that according to the current opinion polls, KMT already lost in New Taipei City and Taipei.

He then pulled out his 3-step rescue plan for KMT's Taipei candidate Hau Lung-bin:

1. Tear down the bicycle path on Dunhua North Road and the bus path on Zhongxiao East East Road （拆除敦北自行車道、忠孝東路公車專用道）.

The bus path on Zhongxiao East Road is one of the things Ma Ying-jeou bragged about for his "achievement" in his 8-year Taipei Mayorship prior to Hau. The path is badly and carelessly designed like most, if not all, of Ma's major management plans are, and has turned into something that brought inconvenience to and complaints from citizens.

So the first thing Jaw suggests Hau to do is to tear down Ma's "achievement", in a way showing how incompetent Ma is, hoping to reflect that Hau's current bad performance is not entirely his fault.

The indication in his statement might not be far from the fact. In an earlier interview, DPP's Taipei city councilor Hsu Chia-ching (徐佳青) revealed that Hau's team in Taipei city was very angry about Ma. She described that Hau and his team couldn't do any thing forward because they have to spend full time cleaning up all those messes Ma created and left.

But for a KMT-hired strategist to put "trashing Ma" as the first step of campaign plan ?

2. Hau should admit that he didn't do well in the past 3 years so he can beg people for the second chance (承認過去三年做得不好，要選民再給一次機會).

Urrhh ... just how on earth is that gonna sell ?

3. "Effect of chicks-boost-hen" -- asking for the endorsement from the city councilor candidates in order to boost Hau's popularity (尋求議員候選人支持，以達到「小雞帶母雞」的效果)。

In Taiwan, when we apply the term "hen-boosts-chicks" (母雞帶小雞) to the politics, it means that a candidate of higher level elections (the hen, like city mayors, etc) is so popular that he/she can boost the popularity of lower level candidates (the chicks, like city councilors). In that case, lower candidates would fight for the spotlight of having a photo with "the hen".

On the other hand, higher level candidates who are so unpopular will be considered "plague of election", or "toxin of voting" (like Ma ying-jeou is now if he chooses to be a candidate) so the lower level candidates will avoid him/her at all cost.

What Jaw suggests now is to reverse the process to "chicks-boost-hen", asking lower level candidates to endorse an unpopular high level candidate whom they would otherwise avoid.

The meaning is clear: Hau is so disliked by the people, not only can't he play the "hen" role but also he has to rely on lower level candidates to risk their own elections to win.

Again, just how on earth is that gonna work ?

So, a summary of Jaw's plan:

1. Emphasize how incompetent Ma is in order to argue Hau is not that guilty;

2. Emphasize how incompetent Hau is in order to bag for the 2nd chance;

3. Admit how unpopular Hau is so he needs to ask KMT's lower level candidates to sacrifice in order to save his own ass.

Interestingly, this strategy of "incompetence admissions" is announced to the public, not delivered in an internal meeting.

Note:
Similar observations came up today. Both articles (in Chinese) cover much broader range of "phenomena" than mine :

五都選舉：國民黨大勢已去
(Five City Election: KMT's momentum is gone)

五都選戰--金馬指揮部亮紅燈 國民黨可能兵敗五都
(Five City Election: Red Alarm in King-Ma Commanding Center, KMT Could Lose All Five)

蔡英文的宏觀視野與台灣全民的新出路

民進黨主席蔡英文在過去這兩年的異常低調與謹言慎行，常被泛綠支持者視為軟弱無能，因此不免令人懷疑她到底想把民進黨帶到哪裡。

但她近幾天卻一反常態，開始大膽挑戰中華民國外來政權（『蔡英文：中華民國 是流亡政府』），大膽碰觸敏感的族群議題（見『蔡英文：認真面對外省族群認同』）。

為什麼會有這麼大的轉變？

而這些都是在她以高達九成多的黨員支持度連任民進黨主席之後才突然一一出現的。也就是說，在她確定了握有超過九成民進黨黨員的支持之後。

前後兩相對照，應該不難看出，原來，她前兩年的低調與外表上的軟弱並不一定能代表她的本質，而是一個新出現的領導者所必須經歷的權力整合過程。她必須確定能保有領導者的聲望與權力，才有辦法做她想做的事。

任何理想，也只有在有實力的前提下，才有實現的可能。這在任何團體都一樣，應該可算是「政治101」。

於是，她的整個佈局突然變得清晰明朗。她的夢想、她的視野，她對台灣該往哪裡去，以及更重要的，「該如何走到目標」，突然像一張地圖一樣整個攤開在眼前。從她當初排除萬難勇敢接任民進黨主席的爛攤子開始之後的作戰策略，也一步一步展開實現中：


1. 泛綠團結 ─

她必須先把面臨崩盤的泛綠糊起來。這一步做得到，那即使她沒有辦法再當黨主席，至少台灣派勢力不至於泡沫化。這已經在經過幾次選舉勝選後達成。


2. 權力整合 ─

接下來她必須確保這個已經糊起來的泛綠能夠全力支持她，讓她有落實理想的本錢。這已經由九成的黨員投票達成。

這個九成的支持度，代表泛綠從以前比較偏向對抗的、「以反擊國民黨策略為主」的被動游擊戰權力結構，轉型到合作的、「以團結所有共同命運的民眾為主」的主動謀略戰權力結構，是泛綠政治史上的一個非常關鍵的轉捩點。

這個「九成多支持度」讓她確信民進黨舊勢力不會再把民進黨拉回強烈排他的舊途徑。若沒有這個支持度，蔡英文的佈局將無法開展，她也必須繼續再保持低調不知多久。

我們從蔡英文決定參選的說明也可以看出來，她已經瞭解這個轉捩點的時機比她預期的提早到來。她已經有足夠的支持，可以提前開始實現她的理想。所以才會說「提早實現十年政綱」並毅然投入選戰。

她已經達成了 1 與 2。從現在開始，她的一切動作，應該可以放在 3，4，5 的架構上來看：


3. 分清「親中特權」與「所有台灣人民」

親中特權積極在運作的，是以所有台灣民眾的成就與資源，換取他們與中國統一的夢想。就跟 228 時的外省權貴將台灣所有的糖米礦等全部拿去服侍中國，導致台灣以稻米生產國竟然鬧糧荒一樣，現在的親中特權，正竭盡所能將台灣數十年努力成果拱手讓中國來接收。

在這個「台灣存在的目的就是服侍中國」的最高指導原則下，台灣數十年經濟成果將迅速被中國吞食，不管你省籍藍綠，所有台灣人民將是受害者。

要達到這個目的，親中特權必須確保台灣全民不會團結起來。

但他們無須發明什麼招數來分化台灣人，因為泛綠長久以來對部分台灣人民的對抗與排他心態，已經幫他們把台灣人切割好。

泛綠這種堅持抗拒、排他的路線，帶給台灣民眾恐懼或厭惡，使得多數台灣人即使有強烈的台灣意識也不願意支持民進黨。我曾在去年的一篇文章『台派知識份子的責任：建構一個「屬於所有台灣住民」的全民台灣』(在我的部落格、Taiwan Online ) 中提到：

絕大多數台灣人民要建自己的國（用台派偏好的詞彙，就是人民已經「覺醒」），但是不敢也不願把「建國」的事情託付給台灣派的人選。

不管國民黨多爛，也不管多數人民都已經知道獨立的必要性，人民對台灣派候選人的疑慮與不安，恐怕要超過他們對「國民黨無能」的失望與苛責。

於是，泛綠這種切割將自己與這些台灣民眾一分為二，不但強化對手弱化自己，更模糊了這些民眾與親中特權之間的對立本質，等於確保了台灣人民永遠無法團結對外。

從蔡英文最近的言論，可以看出來她不但有足夠的智慧能夠看到泛綠這個大罩門，也有足夠的自信能夠解決這個問題。

譬如說，重新提醒民眾「中華民國為外來政權」，正是把「親中特權」跟「台灣全民」分清楚，有助於讓民眾更清楚前述的對立本質；

而「認真面對外省族群的情感」是展現對所有在台灣住民的「命運共同體」的認知，是拉攏台灣民眾、拓展民進黨票源的不二法門。

這一推一拉，將可幫助 4 跟 5 的達成：

4. 團結「台灣民眾」拒絕「親中特權」
5. 以「團結的台灣」防止中國接收台灣

我相信這些步驟都將在未來一一實現。

另外，她在這時候提到「省籍」，可能還有另一個戰略上的重要意義：在提名五都候選人時，北市、新北市、大台中，國民黨派出的人選郝龍彬、朱立倫、胡志強，都是外省籍。

國民黨是否意圖藉此來防堵台灣資源由台灣人掌控，無須批判，因為一批判，就落入省籍對立的陷阱中。

蔡英文這一推外來政權，二拉所有省籍台灣全民，卻是對國民黨的可能意圖提供了許多想像的空間 ── 台灣籍政治人物，真的只能揀國民黨親中特權吃剩下的殘渣充飢嗎？

但她沒有下結論，只是把事實與現況擺開。這種方式的陳述，給人民空間自己下判斷，其影響將會自然而然地深植人心，與泛綠菁英向來堅持的灌輸式、教導式、批判式的權威方式有天壤之別。


蔡英文的路線

李登輝當年的「特殊兩國論」，在台灣政治發展史上扮演了相當關鍵的角色 ── 將「在台灣的政府」跟「中國那塊地」切割開來變成兩國，使得台灣意識的發展，在「中國境外」有一個立足點。

而蔡英文正是這個「特殊兩國論」論述的起草人。亦即，她對台灣「與中國劃清界線」的民主化過程的貢獻，是早在民進黨執政之前就已經明白地寫在台灣的歷史上。

如果把當初特殊兩國論的論述當作蔡英文思維的出發點，來觀察蔡英文這兩年來的言論與作為，應該不難看出蔡英文的風格 ：一步一步踏實往地前走，每一步都經過審慎策劃與思考，每一步都不浪費。既不像許多泛綠菁英幻想的一步到位，更不像馬氏政權一樣瘋狂燥進。

蔡英文決定參選新北市的公開信裡的一段，可以借來印證我的看法：

如果這個決定只是關於我個人的政治生涯規劃，那我絕對不會讓大家等到現在。正是因為我身為民進黨的主席，我清楚知道，我的下一步絕對跟民進黨的改革，以及整個台灣民主政治的未來有關。所以，我的確需要多一 點時間來嚴肅思考。思考的重點，從來都不在於我個人的意願或政治前途，我思考的重點只有一個：參選或不參選，到底哪一個可以把「民進黨的改革」、「對執政 黨的監督」、「新北市民未來的幸福」，以及「台灣整體的利益」，這四者緊緊結合在一起，然後發揮到最大。這中間沒有甚麼轉彎，也沒有甚麼猶豫不決，這是一 個結合全黨上下追求答案，然後把黨的資源妥善安頓，帶著整個黨上戰場的過程。

目前，民進黨已經在蔡英文的整理下重新站起來。不管多少綠營反蔡人士仍堅稱蔡英文沒有貢獻，她在民進黨崩盤的情形下接下重擔，將民進黨帶到這個局勢，已經是功不可沒。

不但如此，她的風格與理念，更已經將民進黨提升到另一個層次，讓民進黨可以在短期內迅速地脫胎換骨。依這個道路， 民進黨可以以合作與理想來爭取為所有台灣人民服務的機會（也就是說，不必靠國民黨做爛來得票），而台灣全民將有機會走向「所有台灣住民命運息息相關」的整體意識，這應是達到「團結全台灣對抗外來勢力」的最佳途徑。

如今，她的佈局已經明朗化，她的整軍也已經到位備戰，現在才剛剛是她出手的開始，往後還有很艱困的路要走。泛綠菁英是否能瞭解她的眼界、理想與整體戰略佈局，並跟著轉型以做為助力，而不是自己困在傳統的對抗模式中而反成為拖力，對台灣的未來，恐將有決定性的影響。